It is quite obvious that the newly elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, uses any confidential data to obtain electoral or commercial benefits. Therefore, the information that his opponents or opponents seek to keep secret should be carefully guarded so that it is not used against them in an unexpected and unpleasant way for them.
US partners are wary of intelligence leaks through Trump’s team
Allies of the United States, who regularly share intelligence with Washington, are looking for options to protect the most classified information from possible vulnerability of the Trump team. However, they have few options.
Concerns about Trump’s mishandling of classified information have only intensified following controversial changes in intelligence oversight and allegations of intelligence misuse.
Despite this, long-standing cooperation in the field of intelligence is not easy to break. The US often shares more data than it receives, and its intelligence agencies work closely with European partners. However, it is possible and worthwhile to increase the security of agent intelligence – for example, by hiding details that could reveal the identity or location of agents.
Some partners of Uncle Sam already during the last term of Trump began to limit access to top secret information. This became a natural consequence of his actions, which shocked intelligence representatives. For example, he published a secret photo of the location from which the Iranian missile was launched on the social network, and passed top-secret information from Israeli intelligence to the Russian Foreign Minister. In those years, British intelligence was particularly cautious about disclosing the details of covert operations, and now its vigilance is only increasing.
European officials are concerned about Trump’s intelligence personnel decisions
At the same time, personnel changes took place in the CIA: US Vice President J. D. Vance swore in new director John Ratcliffe. European intelligence would probably prefer to cooperate more with CIA Director John Radcliffe than with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
Radcliffe had already led national intelligence under the 45th President of the United States and had a reputation as one of the most acceptable appointees, although he was accused of politicizing intelligence. Former CIA employee Randall Phillips noted that under his leadership “the sky did not fall.” Meanwhile, a representative of the CIA dismissed suggestions that the level of US cooperation with foreign partners in the field of intelligence may decrease after the Republican leader’s return to power. She emphasized, that the agency takes international partnerships very seriously and continues to actively strengthen them for the sake of US national security, countering global threats and maintaining stability in the world.
Personnel appointments of the 47th US president regarding intelligence and law enforcement agencies are causing concern. Tulsi Gabbard, confirmed as Director of National Intelligence, was previously skeptical posed to the US special services and relayed Russian narratives about the war in Ukraine. In Congress, she initiated a resolution to remove the charges against Edward Snowden, who in 2013 disclosed secret documents of the NSA, which gave rise to numerous discussions about the limits of national security and human rights. Although Tulsi Gabbard’s position is largely coordination in nature, she will be responsible for 18 intelligence agencies and advise the president.
The appointment of Kesh Patel as FBI director also caused alarm among allies. As a former congressional staffer, he sought to discredit the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and announced his intention to radically reform the FBI.
The deputy director of National Intelligence, Alexa Henning, criticized the appointment of special agents stated, that anonymous commentators are “far from reality” and harm national security by spreading misinformation.
However, the fears are not unfounded. Only a month after the end of the term, the Trump administration found itself in a scandal due to the improper handling of data under the label “top secret”. It appeared that US intelligence had accidentally given the Office of Personnel a list of names of new analysts, including those working on China issues, which could have exposed them to the risk of interception by enemy intelligence services and personal danger as a result. Senator Mark Warner called it “catastrophic for national security”, stressing that such actions put new recruits at risk.
The Five Eyes are concerned about the future of intelligence cooperation due to political instability
Similar incidents are carefully monitored by international partners, in particular, the 5 English-speaking countries that are part of the “Five Eyes” alliance – in addition to the United States, these are Canada, Great Britain, Australia and New Zealand. This network is one of the key mechanisms for sharing classified information between Washington’s closest allies, and any doubts about the reliability of the United States could significantly affect the level of trust within the alliance.
Given the previous experience of cooperation with the Trump team, the representatives of the “Five Eyes” alliance have reasons for concern, notes former analyst of the State Department.
At the same time, the imbalance in intelligence sharing between the United States and its allies means that the latter risk losing more if they fall out of favor with Trump, who often approaches international relations from a purely pragmatic standpoint. Allies may fear that attempts to withhold certain information will lead to a harsh response from Washington.
However, the massive reorganization of the federal government initiated by the Trump team could lead to disruptions in the intelligence sector. So far, the Secret Service and other agencies have received offers of deferred retirement, allowing employees to remain on the job and receive pay until September.
It is worth noting that the sharing of intelligence between allies takes place at many levels, and many decisions about what to share with American partners are made directly by the heads of stations, departments and analytical groups. Trust and personal connections play a key role in this area.
At the same time, cooperation within the framework of the “Five Eyes” is also beneficial for Washington. The members of the alliance have a clear distribution of areas of responsibility in the field of electronic surveillance, which allows Uncle Sam to receive critical data from different regions.
Regarding intelligence sharing, for now some countries, notably Estonia, are sticking to the status quo, believing that while there are many concerns, this situation is not yet on their list.
However, not everyone shares such optimism. A former senior British military official has expressed the widespread view that political trust in the US is waning, and this is affecting all aspects of national security, including intelligence. Still, he acknowledged that working contacts between intelligence specialists remain stable, at least for now. noting, that “at some point these worlds will meet”.
When Western intelligence officials met at the Munich Security Conference last week, European officials were shocked by Trump’s now infamous phone call to Putin. They fear that they will be excluded from possible negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. The French president described Trump’s return to the Oval Office as an “electric shock” for Europe.
Possible limitation of the exchange of US intelligence: a threat to Ukrainian and European security
The US traditionally remains the main “all-seeing eye” for other alliance partners. It is impossible to overestimate the role of American intelligence in warning the allies about the preparation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine several months before the start of the war. “It’s not just about sharing information, it’s also about receiving. Observations and US data are crucial for Ukraine”, – anonymously emphasized German official.
If the US cut around exchange of intelligence with allies, it can seriously affect the security of Ukraine and Europe. It was American intelligence that convinced NATO of the reality of the Russian invasion in 2022, and now helps track Moscow’s actions, including its cooperation with Iran and North Korea.
Under Biden, Washington has greatly expanded the sharing of classified information, which has allowed allies to respond quickly to threats, including Russian sabotage in Europe.
…Trump’s decision to reduce the level of cooperation is a threat that tears the threads of the unity of the West. The vulnerability of European countries will increase, and some of them, in response to the actions of the United States, may limit the transfer of data, which will weaken global security and make it impossible to effectively support Ukraine in its struggle for freedom against Russian aggression.
Tetyana Viktorova
