Summit of the leaders of China, South Korea and Japan in Seoul: the significance of the negotiations for Ukraine
On May 27, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a trilateral meeting in Seoul. It should be noted that this was the first meeting of these Asian countries in the last four years. Before that, their leaders met separately for bilateral talks with each other.
The topics discussed at the meeting were economy, trade, science, technology, healthcare, and international exchanges. In addition, they discussed issues of external security, which arose due to the current tensions in the geopolitical space against the background of military operations, nuclear and missile threats. The day before, the President of South Korea at a bilateral meeting asked the leader of China to play a constructive role with its partners in North Korea, which is expanding its nuclear and missile arsenal in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.
Ahead of the summit, officials and diplomats from South Korea and Japan said they were not confident the summit would make any major and high-profile announcements, but that it would help the three countries revive their rocky relationship. China, which has influence on the Russian Federation, and South Korea and Japan, which are allies of the United States, are trying to establish mutual understanding against the background of rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Added to this are the tensions surrounding Taiwan, which Beijing considers its territory. The US supports Taiwan, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Jia-lung calls it “an important gesture of solidarity that shows America’s firm support for a democratic Taiwan.” The nation plays a crucial role in the global artificial intelligence supply chain, as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co produces most of the world’s advanced chips, including those developed by Nvidia. At the tripartite meeting, the Prime Ministers of Japan and China discussed the Taiwan issue and agreed to hold a new round of high-level bilateral dialogue.
“The three countries must share a clear understanding that the only way to national interests and the happiness of their peoples is to win on the basis of cooperation, not confrontation and conflict.” Lee Hee-sup, Secretary General of the China-Japan-South Korea Cooperation Secretariat, said in a recent interview with Xinhua.
What is the significance of the summit of the leaders of China, South Korea and Japan for Ukraine?
China, Japan and South Korea play a key role in the economy of the Asia-Pacific region, as well as in the world economy as a whole. Despite the difficult relations between these states over the past decades, their cooperation has made significant progress not only in the economy, but also in trade, security, and social relations. The summit was about the expansion of security issues, because the leaders of the countries understand well that the consequences of the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine go far beyond the borders of Europe.
It is noteworthy that during the meeting in Seoul, Japan said that North Korea informed it about the plan to launch a satellite carrier rocket by June 3. Apparently, it is about the DPRK’s attempt to launch a second military spy satellite into orbit. In addition, South Korean intelligence reported that Russian experts are participating in its launch. The “Ryonghap” agency reported on their arrival in North Korea, noting that the Russians began to participate in the DPRK’s space program after Putin’s meeting with Kim Jong Un in September 2023.
U.S., Japanese and South Korean officials are calling on Kim Jong-un’s regime to cancel the satellite launch because UN Security Council sanctions prohibit North Korea from conducting missile tests. At the same time, the Russian Federation is regularly accused of violating the regime of sanctions against Pyongyang after the start of its invasion of the territory of Ukraine, but Russia denies this.
At the summit, the leaders of Asian countries confirmed the importance of the denuclearization of the DPRK (the country’s renunciation of nuclear weapons – ed.). Hours after Pyongyang announced plans to launch a satellite launch vehicle, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said:
“Japan, along with South Korea and China, reaffirmed the importance of North Korea’s denuclearization at a trilateral summit on Monday.”
Therefore, at the summit, extremely important issues for the whole world regarding the prevention of the nuclear threat were raised.
Given the special level of China’s relations with Russia, the Ukrainian authorities are persistently trying to ensure its presence at the June Peace Summit. In recent months, an active “diplomatic competition” has unfolded around China: Western politicians are convincing it to influence Putin to end the war in Ukraine, while the Russian Federation is trying to get China’s support in ensuring economic stability in the face of international isolation, and military assistance in the military conflict with Ukraine.
Close relations with China and other Asian countries allow the Russian Federation to declare the limited capabilities of the Western countries, “which are in the minority”, in terms of its isolation. This fact presents Ukraine with the task of uniting the majority of the world’s states around the achievement of peace in Ukraine on Ukrainian terms, which is planned to be done at the June Peace Summit. At the same time, the main issues for discussion at the summit will not be all ten points of the peace formula, but only three – security in the Black and Azov seas and ensuring exports from Ukraine, nuclear security, return of captured and illegally deported Ukrainian children. That is, those issues that unite Asian and Western countries. It should be noted that these three points are also part of the Chinese peace plan, and Ukrainian politicians are hoping for them, seeking Beijing’s participation in the June summit.
Although China rejects accusations that it supports the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine, there are certain doubts about its non-involvement. For more than two years of the conflict, Beijing has not only provided the Russian Federation with serious diplomatic and economic support, but is also the main supplier of goods used in the production of Russian weapons. This is confirmed by the fact that this topic constantly appears in the negotiations of Western leaders with Xi Jinping, for example, during the recent meeting of Anthony Blinken with Emmanuel Macron.
So, the Chinese position is far from neutral, while it is fundamentally important for the Russian Federation that China not be present at the Peace Summit. However, China has repeatedly publicly stated that it is in favor of its holding – such a statement was made by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, commenting on Zelensky’s appeals to Xi Jinping to participate in the summit in Switzerland.
It should be taken into account that the Russian Federation will not agree to the terms of reconciliation offered to it by Ukraine and the West, this is obvious. Especially now, when Russia has an advantage at the front. The expectation that China will convince Putin to accept a position developed on Ukrainian terms seems unrealistic. Russia and China are allies in the strategic confrontation with the USA, so one cannot hope that he will contribute to the victory of the West over the Russian Federation (this is how he views the war in which Ukraine is only a bargaining chip). In addition, China sees its own window of opportunity in this military confrontation and is trying to use it.
It is possible that China, which is promoting its own “peace plan”, will send its representative to the Peace Summit in order not to lose the visibility of a neutral political player and not appear to be a supporter of the Russian Federation. Has his position regarding the war in Ukraine changed? Probably not. That is why one should not have high hopes that China will help Ukraine to settle the military conflict, there is a high probability of falling into the “Chinese trap”.
No specific agreements were reached at the summit, although the countries agreed to meet regularly at the ministerial level. As a result, statements were made about the joint fight against climate change, the problems of population aging, and a joint call was made for the need to denuclearize North Korea. At the same time, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qian said that the role of China, Japan and South Korea is to “promote development, strengthen cooperation in East Asia and guarantee peace and prosperity in the region and the world.” These countries understand that the only way to protect national interests and the well-being of their peoples is cooperation, not confrontation and conflict. It is necessary for Ukraine to understand this and do everything possible to end the war as soon as possible.
Oksana Ishchenko
