The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts an increase in electricity tariffs for the population in 2026 due to significant needs for the restoration of energy infrastructure. This is reported in the NBU Inflation Report.
The National Bank notes that with the stabilization of the economic situation in the country, tariffs for individual utility services will gradually approach economically justified levels. According to the NBU forecast, a partial increase in the cost of electricity for the population is expected in 2026, which is due to the need to restore the energy infrastructure damaged during Russian attacks.
Experts emphasize that intensive shelling of energy facilities and production facilities by Russia at the end of the third quarter significantly increased the risks of electricity shortages. This forced Ukraine to increase imports of electricity and gas in order to successfully pass the heating season.
The NBU expects that in the fourth quarter of 2025 and early 2026 the economy will operate under conditions of electricity deficit at the level of 4–6%.
“In 2026, the estimate of the electricity deficit has been increased to 3% on average per year. This will have a negative impact on economic activity”, the NBU report says.
Recall that during martial law in Ukraine there is a moratorium on increasing tariffs for heat, hot water and gas for the population. The National Bank predicts that this year the current tariffs for gas, heating and hot water supply will remain unchanged.
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance in the draft state budget for 2026 took into account the negative scenario of the continuation of the war throughout the year – while no tariff increase is expected.
