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The world’s nuclear powers are strengthening their arsenals due to growing geopolitical tensions: what could be the consequences

According to a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), nuclear-weapon states are strengthening their arsenals, and some have created new weapons systems that may possess or are capable of carrying nuclear weapons amid rising geopolitical tensions.

“Nine nuclear powers – the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – continued to modernize their weapons stockpiles, with China possibly deploying for the first time a ‘small number’ of missile warheads in a peaceful time”, the report says.

“While the total number of nuclear warheads in the world continues to decline as Cold War weapons are phased out, unfortunately we continue to see an annual increase in the number of nuclear warheads in action. This trend appears set to continue and is likely to accelerate in the coming years, and this is causing concern,” said institute director Dan Smith.

According to SIPRI data, in January 2024 the total global stockpile of warheads was estimated at 12,121, of which about 9,585 were in military stockpiles for potential use. The think tank estimated that 3,904 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, or 60 more warheads than in January 2023.

Most of the deployed warheads, about 2,100, were “in a state of high operational readiness on ballistic missiles,” SIPRI said. While almost all of these warheads belonged to the US and Russia, for the first time some of China’s warheads are believed to be on high alert.

According to a Swedish think tank, Russia and the US together possess nearly 90 percent of all nuclear weapons, and the number of usable warheads they had in 2023 remained largely stable. However, Russia is estimated to have deployed approximately 36 more warheads in operational forces than in January 2023.

“Transparency regarding nuclear forces has declined in both countries since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the debate surrounding nuclear weapons sharing arrangements has become even more pressing.” – notes the Swedish analytical center.

Russia and the US also have more than 1,200 warheads each, which were previously decommissioned and are being phased out, the report said.

The institute said that despite public claims in 2023 that Russia had deployed nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, there was no convincing visual evidence that actual placement of warheads had taken place.

SIPRI estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024 and is expected to continue to grow.

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“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. But almost all nuclear-weapon states have either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces.” said Hans M. Christensen, senior scientist at SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program.

It should be noted that China could potentially have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the US by the end of the decade, but Beijing’s stockpile of nuclear warheads is expected to remain much smaller than theirs.

North Korea’s military nuclear program remains “a central element of its national security strategy,” with SIPRI estimating that the reclusive kingdom has about 50 warheads and enough fissile material to reach up to 90 warheads, figures that represent “a significant increase over estimates for January 2023”.

In 2023, North Korea reportedly conducted its first test of a short-range ballistic missile from a vestigial mine and completed development of at least two types of nuclear attack cruise missiles (LACMs) designed to deliver nuclear weapons. SIPRI.

“Like some other nuclear powers, North Korea is putting a new emphasis on developing its arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. Accordingly, there is growing concern that North Korea may intend to use these weapons in the very early stages of a conflict,” said Matt Korda, an associate research fellow SIPRI Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs.

Wars weaken diplomacy

At the same time, the Swedish think tank said that the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have further weakened nuclear diplomacy on the world stage.

In 2023, Russia suspended participation in the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction and Limitation Treaty (NPT), the latest nuclear arms control treaty to limit the strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States, while the United States also suspended exchanges in response. data

At the same time, Moscow continues to threaten the use of nuclear weapons in light of Western aid to Ukraine, and in May 2024 it conducted tactical exercises using nuclear weapons near the Ukrainian border.

“We have not seen nuclear weapons play such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War. It is hard to believe that only two years have passed since the leaders of the five largest nuclear powers jointly affirmed that nuclear war is unwinnable and can never lead” said Wilfred Wang, director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program.

Notably, the June 2023 deal between Iran and the US was supposed to lead to a temporary de-escalation of tensions between the two countries, but the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October reoriented the deal due to proxy attacks by Iran-backed groups on US forces in Iraq and Syria .

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The war between Israel and Hamas has also undermined efforts to bring Israel into the Conference on the Creation of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction, the think tank said.

Over the past few weeks, Western countries have given permission for Ukraine to use NATO-class weapons to strike targets on Russian territory. At the same time, they cannot yet determine whether Putin will press the “red button”.

In May, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, commented on the Russian nuclear drills. According to him, the leaders of the West do not want to think logically in the context of the fact that aid to Ukraine “will cause their countries to enter the war directly”, to which Russia “will have to respond”. Medvedev also “intimidated” the West with a “world catastrophe” and noted that “Kennedy and Khrushchev were able to understand this more than 60 years ago, but those who came to power in the West do not want to understand it now.”

Russia’s instigation of the nuclear threat caused two opposite reactions among Western politicians. The first is that it should be easily dismissed. This argument is based on the fact that Russia knows that the use of nuclear weapons will lead to a large-scale attack by NATO on its forces in Ukraine or a nuclear strike in response. The second reaction is that Russia may have a desire to use nuclear weapons if NATO greatly increases aid to Ukraine.

However, both of these arguments may be flawed because there are realistic scenarios in which Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or, less likely, against a NATO country. At the same time, the decision of the Russian Federation will depend on the behavior of the West. Since its nuclear logic is essentially non-reactive, the West should not be afraid to provide military aid to Ukraine. Allowing Russia to gain more territory and capitulate under the threat of a nuclear strike is the worst possible outcome for the West and Ukraine.

In this process, it is very important to sit down at the negotiating table and agree, everyone needs peace, not a nuclear catastrophe.

 

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