Nuclear energy, which has long been considered a source of stable energy for many countries, today faces new challenges related to global dependence on a limited range of technologies. In recent years, 48 out of 52 nuclear reactors, the construction of which began in 2017, are being created using Chinese or Russian technologies. Such concentration in the nuclear technology market, as well as uranium mining and enrichment, increases the risks associated with monopolization and geopolitical influences.
Against the background of these changes, there is a global change in leadership in the field of nuclear energy. Half of the projects under construction today are concentrated in China, which has an ambitious plan to overtake the United States and the European Union in terms of installed nuclear power plant capacity by 2030. At the same time, most of the existing nuclear reactors, which continue to be the backbone of advanced economies, are relatively old: their average age exceeds 36 years, which is twice the average in other countries.
Rejuvenating this sector turned out to be a difficult task. Traditional market leaders such as the United States and France face persistent project delays and cost overruns for new large-scale reactors. Can the global community find a way to diversify supplies while rejuvenating aging infrastructure to ensure the development of nuclear power?
Despite numerous challenges, nuclear power has the potential for recovery and growth, although the outlook depends largely on regional conditions, politics and market dynamics. In advanced economies, the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) and the construction of new large nuclear power plants only partially offset the impact of aging reactors. As a result, by 2050 the capacities in these countries will be only slightly higher than today.
Although several countries are phasing out or prematurely decommissioning nuclear power plants, global nuclear power generation continues to grow. Japan is rebuilding its nuclear power, France is finishing up maintenance, and new reactors are starting up in countries like China, India, South Korea and other European countries. Nuclear power now provides nearly 10% of global electricity production, ranking second among low-carbon sources after hydropower.
China and Russia are shaping the future of nuclear energy
In the European Union, according to report According to the International Energy Agency, the share of nuclear energy in electricity generation reached its peak in the 1990s (34%), but has been decreasing since then – today it is 23% and continues to gradually decrease. Instead, China shows a radically different trend: by the middle of the century, installed capacity in the country will increase more than three times. Similar processes are observed in other developing countries, where nuclear energy capacity will double.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol expressed the belief that Europe, the United States and Japan have the opportunity to regain part of the nuclear market, which today is largely controlled by China and Russia. This can be achieved if the construction of new nuclear reactors is intensified and innovations in nuclear energy are introduced. Birol emphasized the importance of increasing the efficiency of the industry, because only in this way it will be possible to compensate for the lag behind the countries that currently occupy leading positions. According to him, in order for nuclear energy to remain competitive in the face of global changes, it is necessary not only to increase production volumes, but also to improve project management, as well as to apply new technologies to reduce the cost and time of reactor construction.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
IEA Chairman Fatih Birol calls for an end to the dominance of China and Russia
To reduce global dependence on Russia in nuclear energy, Fatih Birol called on the world community to diversify supplies. He emphasized that Russia currently controls almost 40% of uranium enrichment capacity, giving it excessive power in this strategically important industry. Such dominance is a huge risk to energy security and needs to be addressed by diversifying supply sources.
At the same time, nuclear power is getting a new boost thanks to the development of technologies, in particular small modular reactors, as well as the growing need for energy for data centers. In 2023, the world invested a record 65 billion dollars in nuclear energy. However, the USA and Europe, despite their former leadership role, lag significantly behind China in the pace of development of this industry. Projects in these countries, which previously actively supported nuclear energy, today suffer from a lack of political will, huge delays of up to eight years, and cost overruns 2.5 times.
Under such conditions, Birol predicts that in five years China will gain a leading position in the global nuclear energy market, leaving behind the old giants.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Nuclear power plants provide about 10% of the world’s electricity production. In Ukraine, before the start of the war, nuclear power plants played an extremely important role, providing almost half of the country’s total energy consumption. This made Ukraine one of the world leaders in terms of the share of nuclear energy in total electricity generation. With such a high level of involvement of nuclear energy, Ukraine ranked third in the world, which emphasizes the importance of nuclear energy for its energy security and economy as a whole.
The energy revolution is driving competition between technologies
The development of nuclear energy is currently uneven. It faces significant challenges that hinder its sustainable progress on a global scale. It is, in particular, about the energy turnaround in the EU (the so-called “Energiewende”, which is actively developing in Germany and other EU countries), which emphasizes the transition to renewable energy sources (solar, wind) and reducing dependence on fossil fuels. As part of the Energiewende, Germany decided to completely abandon nuclear power by 2022 after the Fukushima accident. The energy turnaround signals the EU countries to rethink the role of nuclear energy. But there is no consensus on this issue. While Germany is actively reducing nuclear capacity, other countries, such as France, continue to support nuclear power as a key source of low-carbon electricity (more than 70% of France’s electricity is generated by nuclear power). Such a difference in approaches creates a split in the EU’s nuclear energy policy.
EU policy provides for significant funding and support for the development of renewable energy sources. This reduces resources for investments in modernization or construction of new nuclear reactors.
Renewable sources, although environmentally friendly, have their limitations (unstability of generation, dependence on weather conditions), which nuclear energy can compensate for.
There is competition between technologies. Nuclear energy is inferior to renewable sources in terms of public support and investment. Accordingly, insufficient investments are directed to its development.
