Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian citizens have received temporary protection in the countries of the European Union. This mechanism, which was initially considered as a temporary humanitarian aid step, has turned into a long-term tool. And although the European Commission proposed to extend the effect of temporary protection until March 2027, the issue of the future of these people has become one of the most acute on the EU agenda. Disagreements between member countries are increasingly coming to the surface, which may threaten the unity of the Union.
Uneven conditions and the threat of conflicts between EU countries
Millions of Ukrainians scattered across the territory of the EU found themselves in very different realities. The governments of the countries determined their own conditions for the implementation of the temporary protection mechanism, and this led to obvious disparities. In some states – in particular in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden – refugees were given extended access to the labor market, financial assistance, language courses and social housing. In other countries, such as Hungary or Bulgaria, the support system is significantly weaker.
This gave rise to the trend of so-called “secondary migration”, when Ukrainians, having already received protection status in one country, move to another with more favorable conditions. Brussels admits that such dynamics can cause conflicts between member countries. In more attractive states, voices complaining about the disproportionate burden on social systems are getting louder and louder. Meanwhile, other countries — where there are significantly fewer refugees — are in no rush to change their policies. It is reported NZZ.
Legal uncertainty and the crisis of long-term planning
Although the status of temporary protection has already been extended three times, according to current EU legislation, its application is limited to a three-year period. That is, from the beginning of 2025, Ukrainian refugees actually find themselves in a zone of legal turbulence. No long-term status that would allow them to remain in the EU after the expiry of this mechanism currently exists.
This situation not only creates uncertainty for the Ukrainians themselves, but also inhibits their integration. Employers are afraid to conclude contracts with people whose term of stay in the country is in question. In the housing rental market, temporary status is also viewed with suspicion. Thus, without legal consolidation, the prospect of a fulfilling life in EU countries remains illusory for millions.
Social risks and limitations of humanitarian mechanisms
Going to the classic asylum procedures for Ukrainians is not an option either. The administrative systems of most member states simply cannot withstand the flow of hundreds of thousands of new applications. In addition, the formal granting of refugee status is associated with stricter criteria and longer procedures. This could create a legal vacuum in which a part of Ukrainians – especially the most vulnerable categories: elderly people, mothers with children, persons with disabilities – would find themselves outside the limits of legal stay.
Political adviser of the International Center for the Development of Migration Policy in Vienna, Martin Wagner, emphasizes that delay only increases the threat. He believes that EU countries should formulate a single prospective strategy for Ukrainian refugees as soon as possible.
Among the ideas discussed at the level of experts and individual politicians is the introduction of a special “Reconstruction Permit”. This concept was proposed by the former vice-prime minister of the Netherlands, Lodewijk Ascher. It is about giving Ukrainians the right to stay in EU countries for up to ten years, while not preventing them from voluntarily returning home.
Others propose a more radical option — to grant Ukrainian refugees the status of permanent residents at the level of the whole of Europe. But these decisions require coordination at the intergovernmental level — and therefore, their implementation may take years. In reality, Ukrainians need a solution now.
Return is increasingly less likely: integration in EU countries continues
Despite the first emotional statements in 2022, when refugees en masse talked about a quick return, the reality has changed in three years. The war continues, economic uncertainty in Ukraine is growing, and children who have been going to European schools for several years have adapted to new conditions.
Meanwhile, the mechanisms of permanent residence in different EU countries are tied to the economic independence of the applicant. That is, in fact, vulnerable groups are automatically excluded from such a perspective – those who do not work, do not have sufficient income or do not meet other criteria. They will be the first victims of political inaction.
In a situation that looks like an impasse, the European Commission decided to resort to a classic tool: to appoint a special representative. This envoy will be mandated to negotiate with member states and Ukraine on finding an alternative to the current temporary protection status. The position of Brussels is obvious: it is necessary to avoid the spontaneous concentration of Ukrainian refugees in several countries, because this can lead to social tension and political crises.
Currently, the European Union is balancing between the ideals of solidarity and the desire of individual states to minimize their own burdens. And although Ukrainians are no longer the number one topic on the political agenda, time for decision-making is running out. Without a clear, predictable and common policy in the coming months, the EU risks not only losing control of the process, but also giving impetus to a new round of interstate conflict – this time not over the distribution of gas or quotas, but over people fleeing war.
