Only about a third of Ukrainian refugees will return to the Motherland after the end of the war. this is evidenced by the results of the study Center for Economic Strategy (CES). In addition, the relatively massive outflow of citizens abroad will continue. A significant share of migrants after the war will be men who will go to their families, who have already settled in European countries.
“The majority of Ukrainians still plan to return to Ukraine (26% definitely and 26% probably). However, the number of those who definitely plan to return has almost halved over the past year. In the first wave of the survey, 49.7% said they definitely plan to return. At the same time, the indicators for those who plan to return and those who are hesitant have increased: there were only 24% and 16% of such in November-December 2022, respectively,” the CES report states.
What will help return Ukrainians?
Among the incentives that will motivate them to return to the Motherland, the majority of refugees name the end of the war. This is a sufficiently important factor for 54% of respondents. 37% of respondents are ready to return even if the conflict continues: the main thing for them is that there are no more strikes on the city they left.
40% of Ukrainians are ready to return home if the standard of living in the country rises. For 35% of refugees, a good condition for returning would be if they find a well-paid job in Ukraine.
For young people in the age group of 18-24 years, an additional incentive to return is help in finding a job in Ukraine.
“At the same time, for the elderly (over 65 years old), one of the important factors that will encourage them to return is the end of temporary shelter in the country of their current stay. 28% noted this factor, and this share is the highest among all age groups,” the Center notes. economic strategy.
How many Ukrainians will go abroad after the war?
Currently, more than 10% of Ukrainian women who have gone abroad since 2022 expect that their husbands will come to live in another country after the end of the war.
“According to our calculations, 87,600 Ukrainians may go abroad in addition under the optimistic scenario, 115,000 — under the average scenario, and 154,900 — under the pessimistic one,” the Central Committee of Ukraine reported.
That is, from 88 to 155 thousand men, whose wives are abroad, plan to emigrate in the future. If we take into account other population groups, the indicators are many times higher.
