At the beginning of September, wheat stocks in Ukraine amounted to 18.7 million tons, which is significantly lower than the average annual indicators of previous seasons, when stocks exceeded 20 million tons. About this informs the press service of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, referring to the analytical department of the PUSK agricultural cooperative.
According to the memorandum signed between grain traders and the Ministry of Agricultural Policy, Ukraine does not plan to export more than 16 million tons of wheat. However, if exports continue at the level of 2 million tons per month, domestic wheat reserves will last only until March-April next year.
Analysts note that due to limited export volumes, the price of wheat may increase due to a decrease in market supply. August stability on the market was ensured by forward contracts, but in September the situation begins to change.
“Traders report that there are few offers for wheat. And if in August it was possible to hold the situation thanks to forward contracts, then in September there are almost no such contracts. The market will work mainly on the basis of spot contracts.”, analysts emphasize.
Experts also note that global markets can affect pricing. A new report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expected, as well as a correction of forecasts for the production of wheat in the EU. In particular, the USDA estimate for European wheat production is 128 million tons, while the European Commission forecasts only 116.2 million tons.
In addition, adverse weather conditions in Argentina, where drought affects soil moisture levels, may negatively affect the global wheat balance.
Analysts predict that by the end of September, the price of food wheat of the third grade in Ukraine may increase to $200-205/t on CPT terms, even if world prices remain stable. Domestic prices may also rise significantly due to the current situation.
According to the State Customs Service, as of September 11, Ukraine exported 8.187 million tons of grain and leguminous crops since the beginning of the 2024/25 marketing year. Of these, 4.293 million tons are wheat, and only in September 700 thousand tons of wheat were exported.
