In the previous article “Crime and the level of internal security in Ukraine: two views on one problem” the state of modern crime in Ukraine was analyzed and relevant statistics were provided. Continuing this topic, we will find out how the nature of crime has changed under martial law and what factors affect the effectiveness of the police as a whole.
The leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine declares that the general level of crime in Ukraine during the war did not increase, but even decreased, but its nature has changed. It is emphasized that the number of serious and especially serious crimes has decreased, as well as street crime, but cases of theft and fraud have increased.
In general, statistics on crime should be viewed critically: if some violent crimes are easier to count, they can be almost accurately determined (for example, the number of murders is difficult to hide), then with other types of crimes it is not so simple. They are more difficult to express quantitatively, so a large part of them simply does not fall into statistics. Its indicators are affected by latent crime, i.e., the totality of actually committed, but undetected or unknown to the police, criminal manifestations. In this regard, information about them is not included in the official statistical reporting. This significantly distorts the perception of the real state of crime, and also reduces the degree of reliability of its forecasts. In this case, we are talking about all types of crimes that, for one reason or another, escaped registration and, accordingly, there was no proper reaction to them by law enforcement officers. The reason for this is that citizens did not contact the police or reported the commission of a crime in an untimely manner. For example, while they were away, their apartment was robbed. Therefore, it turns out that there is a crime, but it is not recorded, therefore it is not taken into account in the statistics. Another reason that affects the objectivity of statistical data is the improper response of citizens to appeals by the police. During the war, the police work in a different format and do not always respond to reports of minor offenses. In addition, often during the registration of an offense by the police, another legal qualification is entered. Also, criminals try to integrate into state structures, unscrupulously using war as a means of profit, therefore they try in every possible way to solve their issues at the stage of pre-trial investigation. Therefore, taking into account all these factors, it is impossible to see the real level of the criminogenic situation.
Despite the war, the criminal world in Ukraine did not disappear, but only changed – in addition to war crimes committed by the Russian Federation, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians face armed attacks, theft, embezzlement of humanitarian aid, and attempts to profit from the war. Undoubtedly, due to the restriction of some rights and freedoms of citizens during martial law, the introduction of a curfew, the increase in the presence on the streets of policemen, soldiers, national guardsmen, representatives of voluntary formations of territorial communities, as well as restrictions on the sale of alcoholic products, the level of street crime (robberies and robberies) decreased This fact was also influenced by the strengthening of responsibility for committing a number of property crimes under martial law, introduced at the legislative level in 2022. In addition, a deterrent factor for crime to some extent was the fact that people left Ukraine en masse, and among them were criminals and criminal authorities who temporarily lost their influence.
At the same time, while the main attention of the entire society and law enforcement agencies is focused on countering military aggression, criminal groups have become more active, dealing in arms and drug trafficking, as well as vehicle theft, apartment burglaries, and looting. The latter type of crime is more relevant today than ever, as Ukrainians faced the problem of keeping their property in apartments, houses, offices or shops during hostilities. Our citizens suffer from looting not only by the Russian military, but also by their compatriots. Marauders steal the property of city dwellers who have left their place of residence to escape shelling and bombing. There are cases when marauders “working” in the homes of citizens right during the shelling, being in the epicenter of hostilities.
Also, since the beginning of the war, the police began to draw up administrative protocols much less, which criminals understood very well and took advantage of this. This, in turn, led to the commission of more serious offenses and crimes.
The criminogenic situation is complicated by the fact that now many people have weapons and ammunition, which are brought home from the front line in an uncontrolled manner. “Ukrainians may have up to 5 million weapons and ammunition” – this was stated by the Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko at the meeting of the Congress of local and regional authorities under the President of Ukraine.
Thus, the regularity of the existence of crime in wartime is a change in its structure, an increase in public danger, and an increase in latency. That is why, according to statistical data, the number of some types of crimes has decreased, while others, on the contrary, have increased.
As the historical experience of previous wars in different countries shows, at first there is always a decline in crime, and after the end of hostilities there is a sharp jump up. However, it is worth mentioning that after the start of the Anti-Terrorist Operation in 2014, the first few years in Ukraine recorded an increase in crime, and the number of serious and especially serious crimes jumped by almost one and a half times. And this is without taking into account the territories of Crimea and Donbas. Probably, such a trend, but on a much larger scale, may repeat itself after the end of the war with the Russian Federation. Chaos, confusion and irresponsibility in the front line, and in some cases in the deep rear, contribute to the development of all types of crime, including abuse of office, theft of state property, etc.
Currently, the criminogenic situation is not yet the main topic of the information agenda in Ukrainian society, but it will certainly become one of the priorities in the post-war period, when people will encounter a large number of criminal manifestations. A number of reasons will contribute to this:
- Citizens’ access to firearms. The hostilities affected society’s saturation with undeclared weapons, the number of which will significantly increase by the end of the war, and its illegal circulation will also increase. This will lead to an increase in the number of robberies, murders, terrorist attacks, and violent acts.
- Economic factors. Many Ukrainians have lost their housing, property and income, some are unable to feed their families. According to the UN International Labor Organization, more than five million Ukrainians have lost their jobs since the beginning of the war. Many small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped their activities, another third are on the verge of closure. Also, after the war, reductions in social benefits and problems with pension payments are expected. All this will increase the number of cases of murder, theft, robbery, fraud, extortion. By the way, 85% of crimes are committed by unemployed people.
- A split within society. The differentiation of society is still acute today – people are divided by language, religion, ideological views, as well as their attitude to mobilization. While one part of the population is in a state of war, the other tries to distance itself from it and lives in a different reality. All these confrontations can intensify after the war, and such an imbalance in society will provoke mass riots, hooliganism, bodily harm, and even murder.
- Psychological injuries. From 3% to 11% of servicemen suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), among the wounded their share reaches 30%. In addition, mental disorders also occur in peaceful citizens in response to difficult life events. Loss of loved ones, excessive physical exertion and fatigue, constant stress, physical or sexual violence, direct physical threat to life, divorce or betrayal in personal life, sexual disorders due to injury, physical exertion or diseases acquired in the cold trenches, financial difficulties , hopelessness, revaluation of values, perception of everyday violence in war, subjective reduction of the value of human life and health – all these factors can be the cause of mental disorders and the emergence of PTSD in people.
The Great Patriotic War should be mentioned or “Afghan syndrome”, when mentally and psychologically traumatized servicemen (especially the disabled) returned home and found themselves in a different reality, where they encountered bureaucracy, the devaluation of their military duty by the state and society. They could not realize themselves, get a job, lost their families for various reasons, which resulted in cases of strong aggression and conflicts that led to hooliganism, fights, and murders. At the same time, it should be taken into account that a certain number of people who took part in hostilities could not stop after the war and went on a criminal path.
- Samosud. We are already facing “lynch courts”, the number of which may increase significantly after the war, if people see the inaction of the police against thieves and looters. It is common for people to fight looters and other thieves on their own, tying them to electric poles and trees for public viewing and beatings. There is a huge amount of evidence of this on the Internet. However, it is worth remembering that every criminal should bear only the responsibility prescribed by law, so such persons should be transferred to the law enforcement agencies as quickly as possible so that none of them escapes punishment.
Currently, people’s deputies are proposing to allow convicts and prisoners who want to sign a contract with the Armed Forces to receive conditional early release during martial law. The corresponding bill No. 11079 has already been registered in the Verkhovna Rada. If such a law is adopted, the return to peaceful life of this category of citizens will become a significant criminogenic potential, which will significantly affect the level of crime in the country.
So, there are a lot of problems with crime both during the war and in the post-war period. Their solution requires appropriate effective measures from the state, as well as high professionalism from the police.
Read about the work of the modern police and the level of its professionalism in the following material.
Oksana Ishchenko
