The approach of the presidential elections in the USA arouses considerable interest and certain concern of the world society, especially they are important for Ukraine. Their results can significantly affect the course and stability of the development of our state, its security and international position. After the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, there was a question about possible candidates from the Democratic Party.
IA “FAKT” analyzed and made predictions about who could replace Biden if he decides not to run for a second term, as well as which of the candidates is the best for Ukraine.
Why the debate is considered a failure for Biden
The debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which took place on June 27, 2024, was too difficult for Biden for several reasons:
- Lethargy and lack of energy. Biden appeared less energetic compared to Trump, which gave the impression of his lack of confidence, physical endurance and poor health.
- Delays and hesitations in responses. At some points, Biden hesitated and delayed his answers to questions, raising doubts about his ability to respond quickly to challenges.
- Lack of a clear strategy. Biden has not always been able to formulate a clear strategy on important issues, which has given Trump the opportunity to criticize his policies and take advantage of the debate.
- Trump’s attacks. Trump actively used aggressive tactics, often interrupting Biden and forcing him to defend himself, which distracted from Biden’s main messages.
- Questions about the economy. Biden has had a hard time convincing audiences of the effectiveness of his economic policies, especially amid Trump’s criticism of inflation and economic growth.
These factors contributed to the impression that the debate was a failure for Biden, although his support among a certain segment of the electorate remained stable. Despite this, after the debate, the editorial board of the New York Times called on Biden to withdraw his candidacy from the election, but the current US president responded by saying that he would not do so and promised his supporters that he would win. According to him, the competition will be easy. At the same time, Biden added:
“I should be compared “not with God Almighty”, but with an alternative. Trump is a real threat… I promise, we will win this election.”
What other candidates can apply for the presidential seat
Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and other prominent politicians are often mentioned as potential candidates. A separate issue is the possible participation in the elections of Michelle Obama, who, despite her popularity, has repeatedly stated her reluctance to run for political office.
- Kamala Harris
Position: Vice President of the United States.
Pluses: As a vice president, she has considerable experience and recognition. Her nomination could boost support among women and African-Americans.
Cons: Her popularity ratings remain low, and she often faces criticism for her performance in office.
Advantages for Ukraine: As vice president, Harris supports the current policy of the Biden administration regarding support for Ukraine. She advocates aid and sanctions against Russia.
Cons: Her experience in foreign policy is relatively limited, which may affect her ability to deal effectively with complex international issues.
- Gavin Newsom
Position: Governor of California.
Pluses: Has experience governing one of the largest US states and is popular among the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
Cons: His politics may be too left-wing for some voters in more conservative states.
Advantages for Ukraine: Newsom has a reputation as a progressive politician who supports democratic values. His position may be similar to Biden’s policy on Ukraine.
Cons: Lack of significant experience in foreign policy.
- Pete Buttidge
Position: US Secretary of Transportation.
Pluses: Young, charismatic and experienced in running the city of South Bend. Can attract young voters.
Cons: Lack of experience at the national level can be an obstacle.
Advantages for Ukraine: Buttidge has experience working in the Biden administration and supports the current course on aid to Ukraine. He often spoke in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Cons: As with Newsom, lack of extensive experience in foreign policy.
- Elizabeth Warren
Position: Senator from Massachusetts.
Pluses: Well-known economist and consumer rights activist, supports progressive reforms.
Cons: Her progressive positions may scare away centrist and conservative voters.
Advantages for Ukraine: Warren supports a tough policy toward Russia and favors aid to Ukraine. It is also known for its anti-corruption activities, which can be useful for supporting reforms in Ukraine.
Cons: Her progressive stances may worry some centrist and conservative voters.
- Now Cuomo
Position: Former Governor of New York.
Pluses: Has significant staff management experience and recognition.
Cons: Resignation amid scandals surrounding sexual harassment allegations and criticism of the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic could significantly reduce his chances.
Advantages for Ukraine: Cuomo is likely to support continued sanctions against Russia and support Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty and territorial integrity. He is known for his initiatives in the field of health care and economic development. This may lead to increased cooperation between the United States and Ukraine in these areas.
Cons: Cuomo may have other foreign policy priorities that may not always coincide with Ukraine’s interests. This may lead to a decrease in support or a change in the direction of cooperation.
- Catherine Cortez Masto
Position: Senator from Nevada.
Pluses: The first Latina elected to the US Senate has strong support among the Latino community.
Cons: Relatively unknown at the national level.
Advantages for Ukraine: Masto supports human rights and democratic values, which is important for relations with Ukraine. Her ethnic origin can contribute to better relations with different communities.
Cons: Lack of experience in foreign policy can be a disadvantage.
- Kirsten Gillibrand
Position: Senator from New York.
Pluses: A well-known defender of women’s and veterans’ rights, she has experience working in Congress.
Cons: Her support may be limited by centrist voters.
Advantages for Ukraine: Known for her support of Ukraine in Congress. She voted for sanctions against Russia and for aid to Ukraine. This may indicate that her administration would continue to support Ukraine in the struggle for sovereignty. As a member of the Armed Services Committee, Gillibrand has a deep understanding of international security issues. This may lead to increased military and technical assistance to Ukraine.
Cons: Has limited experience in conducting international negotiations at a high level, which can be a challenge in difficult diplomatic situations. Gillibrand has progressive views that may not always align with more centrist members of the Democratic Party. This may create some tension within the party, which will distract from international issues.
- Roy Cooper
Position: Governor of North Carolina.
Pluses: Has experience running a conservative state, which can help attract independent voters.
Cons: A relatively unknown figure at the national level.
Advantages for Ukraine: Known for his support of human rights and democratic values. This may mean continued support for Ukraine in the struggle for sovereignty and the implementation of reforms. As governor, Cooper worked with representatives of both political parties to achieve common goals. This can contribute to a stable and predictable foreign policy towards Ukraine, regardless of internal political conflicts in the US.
Cons: has limited experience in international affairs, his political career has mostly focused on domestic issues such as health care, education and the economy. This may lead to less attention to foreign policy issues, including the situation in Ukraine. As a new player on the international scene, Cooper may have other priorities in foreign policy that may not always coincide with Ukraine’s interests.
- Mitch Landrew
Position: Former mayor of New Orleans.
Pluses: Popular among Democrats for his efforts to rebuild New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.
Cons: Lack of experience at the state level can be a barrier.
Advantages for Ukraine: Landreu is known for his ability to find a common language with representatives of both political parties. This can contribute to a more stable and predictable foreign policy towards Ukraine, regardless of internal political conflicts in the US. As the coordinator of infrastructure projects in the Biden administration, Landreu has experience in the implementation of large projects that could lead to increased cooperation between the United States and Ukraine in the field of infrastructure development.
Cons: Landreau has limited experience in international affairs and foreign policy, his work has mainly focused on domestic issues such as infrastructure and urban governance, which can pose challenges in dealing with complex international issues. As a new player in the international arena, Landreu may have other priorities in foreign policy, which may not always coincide with the interests of Ukraine. This can lead to changes in the directions of cooperation.
- Sherrod Brown
Position: Senator from Ohio.
Pluses: A prominent progressive politician who enjoys significant support among the working class.
Cons: His progressive positions may scare off some centrists.
Advantages for Ukraine: Brown is known for his tough stance on Russia and support for sanctions. He is also in favor of providing aid to Ukraine.
Cons: His progressive positions may not find support among all voters.
- Michelle Obama
Former First Lady of the United States.
Pluses: Michelle Obama is hugely popular with Democratic voters and has significant recognition. She is known for her charisma, intelligence and ability to inspire people. Her experience as first lady gives her considerable political capital and knowledge of the inner workings of the White House. She is known for her powerful speeches, and her programs aimed at children’s health, education and support for military families have received widespread support. Her husband, former President Barack Obama, has enormous influence and could be an important resource during the campaign.
Cons: Michelle Obama has repeatedly stated that she has no desire to run for political office. She has no experience in elected office, which may be a hindrance for some voters. Her progressive positions may cause resistance among conservative voters.
Advantages for Ukraine: Her election can contribute to the strengthening of support for Ukraine from the general public and the international community. She always advocates for human rights, education and health. Her administration is likely to support democratic reforms and the fight against corruption in Ukraine.
Cons: the lack of experience in the performance of political functions has a negative effect on solving complex issues of international politics and diplomacy related to Ukraine. Its activities were mainly focused on domestic social issues such as education, health and family support. This may mean less attention to foreign policy and international relations, including the situation in Ukraine. Because of her lack of direct political experience, Michelle Obama can rely heavily on foreign policy advisors. This may lead to unpredictable changes in the foreign policy course in relation to Ukraine.
The best candidates for Ukraine
The most promising candidates for Ukraine may be Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown. Their tough positions on Russia, support for sanctions and assistance to Ukraine are fully in its interests.
Elizabeth Warren is known for her support of democratic values and human rights. This may mean actively supporting Ukraine in its pursuit of democracy and the fight against corruption. She is also a supporter of progressive reforms in the field of economy and social policy, which can contribute to the strengthening of cooperation between the United States and Ukraine in the field of economic development and social programs.
At the same time, Sherrod Brown’s consistent support for sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine makes him a reliable partner for our country. Sherrod Brown is known for his support of the working class and the protection of workers’ rights. This may mean increased economic cooperation between the United States and Ukraine, particularly in the field of protection of workers’ rights and industrial development. As a member of the US Senate, Brown advocates for the protection of human rights and democratic values, which can help support reforms in Ukraine aimed at strengthening democracy and fighting corruption.
The other candidates also have their pros and cons, and they could become important figures if Joe Biden decides not to run for a second term. However, the situation is constantly changing, and the final list of candidates will be known closer to the election date.
