Ukraine stands on the edge of a demographic abyss. The country is not only losing territory due to war, it is also losing people every day – due to low birth rate, high death rate and mass migration. Young people are looking for prospects abroad, and most of them do not plan to return. Instead, the older generation remains a witness to the gradual fading of the nation.
Sad facts emphasize this inexorable process: Ukraine is one of the world leaders in terms of population aging and has one of the lowest birth rates. Add to this the constant deterioration of citizens’ health and the increase in the number of deaths, and the picture becomes increasingly threatening.
Horrifying numbers that point to the melting of a nation
Ukraine is one of the leaders, but unfortunately, in very sad indicators. Our country has long been one of the countries with the highest rates of population aging, and now has one of the lowest birth rates in the world. Added to this are other factors, such as the deterioration of the health of citizens, a high rate of premature mortality, mass forced emigration and deportation. As a result, the question arises only about how quickly the population of Ukraine will decrease.
Ukraine is gradually but steadily losing itself. This is not a political cliché or an exaggeration, but the numbers that speak for themselves. The country’s population is shrinking and the structure of society is changing in such a way that the future looks worrisome. The first thing that catches the eye is the aging of the nation. The average age of Ukrainians is steadily increasing. The number of elderly people is increasing, and the number of young people who could keep the economy afloat is shrinking.
The report of the UN Foundation notes that the largest part of the population of Ukraine consists of people aged 15 to 64 – 64.6%. Persons aged 65 and older make up 20.2%, and the share of children and adolescents under 14 years old reaches 15.2%. The average life expectancy in Ukraine as of 2024 is 64.1 years. Thus, the average life expectancy of men is 57.3 years, and the average life expectancy of women is 70.9 years.
According to experts’ forecasts, by 2040 the average life expectancy will increase to 71 years. The standard of living for men will be 66 years, and for women – 75.8 years.
As of 2024, there are 10.516 million people of retirement age in Ukraine. This number has slightly decreased compared to 2023 (10.687 million people). The leader in the number of pensioners is the Dnipropetrovsk region. (887 thousand). In second place in terms of the number of pensioners is Kyiv (752 thousand), and in third place – Kharkiv region. (723 thousand).
Currently, 18% of the population is over 65 years old, and the ratio of working people to pensioners is 1 to 1. That is, one working person already supports one pensioner. As you can see, Ukraine is rapidly turning into a country of pensioners. And this is not a loud statement, but a strict statistic. Today, every fifth Ukrainian is over 60 years old. A few more decades – and there will be almost a third of them.
If this trend continues, very soon the country will have to look for who will work, pay taxes and support the economy. An aging population creates a vicious circle. The more people retire, the more pressure falls on the shoulders of working people. But the number of able-bodied Ukrainians is rapidly decreasing. Already now there are more and more pensioners for each worker, and this proportion is becoming catastrophic. Added to this is another problem: an aging nation needs not only financial support, but also huge resources for medicine, social protection and care.
The low birth rate only reinforces this negative trend. In 2023, the birth rate in Ukraine was one of the lowest in Europe and amounted to 0.7, and in 2024 – 0.6. data Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, in 2024, 87,655 children were born in Ukraine. This indicator is 9% less than in the same period of 2023 and 1.5 times less than in the first half of 2021. In general, the number of newborns did not exceed 187 thousand in 2023. If we compare this figure with 2022, when about 207 thousand children were born, and 2021 (277.8 thousand), then we have the lowest figure in the history of modern Ukraine.
According to McKinsey Global Institute research, on the world demographic map, Ukraine is marked as one of the worst zones in terms of birth rate, on the same level as China. Families rarely dare to have children, and large families have already become an exception to the rule. This means that the country lacks those who will replace the aging generation in the workplace.
We should not forget about the death rate, which in the country in the period from 2018 to 2020 already exceeded the birth rate twice. In 2024, it is also the highest and is 18.6 per 1000 people. In the first half of 2024, 250,972 citizens died, which was three times the number of newborns.
Mass emigration is added to this. Over the past decade, millions of Ukrainians have left the country in search of better living conditions. The war only accelerated this process. People escape abroad, build new lives there and often do not plan to return. Even those who want to return are put off by economic instability, corruption and uncertainty about the future.
According to the data research According to the Center for Economic Strategy, as of 2024, there are 4.9 million Ukrainian refugees abroad. The main category is women aged 30 to 44 with children – 13%. The number of migrants was concentrated in Germany (30%), Poland (22%) and the Czech Republic (4.4%). There is also a large number of Ukrainians in the USA (280,000 people) and Canada (210,200 people).
Considering the composition of refugees, they were conditionally divided into the following categories:
- classic refugees are mainly women with children who have not been abroad before (41%);
- quasi-labour migrants – those who go to earn money abroad constantly (29%);
- professionals are refugees who had their own business in Ukraine, or work exclusively in their profession (29%);
- refugees from the war zone are the category most affected by the war, having lost their own housing (16%).
If we take into account all the conditions of these groups that forced them to move abroad, we can conclude that the third and fourth groups are the most ready to return to Ukraine. The results of the study indicate that in the end, about 1.4 million – 2.3 million Ukrainians will remain in their new place of residence. About 2.8 million women of working age who left Ukraine as refugees will not return home, and this will cause a new wave of loss of 10% of the annual pre-war gross domestic product to Ukrainian GDP.
The consequences of such a decision will have a painful impact on the socio-economic development of Ukraine. By forecasts experts, by 2030 Ukraine will experience a labor shortage of 4.5 million
Such a situation puts Ukraine in front of a difficult choice: either accept the dramatic reduction of the population, or open the door to migrants. In 2024, the government began to act and approved strategy demographic development of Ukraine until 2040. However, even under the favorable conditions that the officials counted on when planning the action plan, we will not be able to reach the pre-crisis level of 41 million inhabitants. In order to stabilize the country after the war, it is necessary to open the borders for about 300,000 migrants from Asian and African countries. Such an option seems quite logical from the point of view of economy. However, more and more people are concerned about the question, will Ukraine be the same if it is filled with people from other parts of the world?
This crisis is not only about numbers, but also about identity. Preservation of language, culture, traditions — all this depends on who inhabits the country. At the same time, it is impossible to postpone solving the problem, because time works against us.
In order to save yourself from a crisis situation, you need a comprehensive strategy that takes into account all aspects of the problem. This includes support for families who want to have children, and the creation of conditions for the return of Ukrainians from abroad, and a well-thought-out policy of migrant integration. Without active and thoughtful actions on the part of the state, the demographic crisis will turn into a national catastrophe, after which Ukraine may never become the one we knew.
How the world managed to survive: the experience of countries in the fight against the demographic crisis
The demographic crisis is not only a Ukrainian problem. Different countries faced it at one time, and many managed to find solutions that stopped the population decline and even gave a new impetus to development. In Ukraine, these lessons are often ignored, although borrowing someone else’s experience could significantly change the situation.
France is one of the leaders in Europe in terms of birth rate. And this is no accident, because the state itself created a system of benefits that motivates young families to have children. High “child” benefits, tax breaks for those with many children, affordable kindergartens and help for working parents are key factors that have helped to stabilize demographics.
Germany has been facing the problem of an aging population for many years in a row. Their solution was a large-scale migration policy. But the key to success here is not open borders, but competent integration. Migrants take language courses, receive help with employment and gradually become part of society. It is a complex process, but Germany has proven that migration can be an opportunity, not a threat.
Poland experienced a massive wave of emigration after joining the EU, but after several years the government began to actively work on the return of citizens. Campaigns involving the diaspora, creating economic incentives, supporting small businesses and returning young professionals have borne fruit. Part of the emigrants returned, bringing new knowledge and capital to the country.
Sweden, Norway and Denmark have shown that social equality and quality of life have a direct impact on demography. Affordable medicine, paid maternity leave for both parents, work-life balance have made families more confident in the future.
All these examples demonstrate that none of the solutions is universal. But they prove that the demographic crisis is not a sentence, it can be dealt with. Ukraine needs its own strategy that takes into account our realities. Investments in the family, the return of emigrants, a competent migration policy and the fight against inequality can become the foundation on which our future will be built.
The world has already passed through these difficulties and survived. Ukraine should adopt these vivid examples in order to build the most effective strategy for exiting the crisis situation.
Today, Ukraine is on the verge of a demographic abyss. We are getting old, not having time to give birth to new generations. Millions of Ukrainians build their lives abroad and, even loving their homeland, are in no hurry to return. And those who stay face a sense of instability that does not encourage them to start families or plan for the future. Therefore, our country risks finding itself in a reality where its population will shrink to critical limits, or the demographic “hole” will be filled at the expense of migrants from far less developed countries. But will this Ukraine remain the one we know and love? Ukrainians risk losing the wealth of the nation – their language, culture, traditions.
It is still possible to save the situation, but it requires not only reforms, but also a complete reassessment of state policy priorities. Ukraine needs a comprehensive strategy — from supporting the birth rate and returning the diaspora to creating living conditions that people will not want to leave. If we do not start acting now, future generations can only learn about Ukraine from history textbooks.
