“Ukraine will try to launch a counteroffensive in 2025” – bypassed all world mass media statement of US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, which he made during an interview with the Financial Times.
It is quite clear why this statement was so unanimously supported by the world media: the Biden administration needs positive news from Ukraine now more than ever. In the conditions of the successful offensive of Russian troops, the success of which was primarily caused by the blatant sabotage of the supply of weapons to Ukraine by the Biden government, it is necessary to create a PR picture of the paternal care of the Biden team for the future of Ukraine.
It so happened that supporting Ukraine against the will of the warring country itself became part of the pre-election PR campaign of the current US president. Ukraine, which chooses its freedom, is the perfect slogan for the use of force by the Biden administration. This is claimed by the world mass media, and almost always exclusively in a positive way for Ukraine. That is, against the backdrop of the failure in Afghanistan “courageous struggle” for the freedom of Ukraine is an ideal topic for democrats. Especially in conditions where many Democratic voters are strongly against Israel, and the fight over it could bring more negative consequences for the election campaign than positive ones. This does not happen with Ukraine, this is extremely positive PR. The fact that there is a chasm between the official PR of the Biden team and the real support for Ukraine is of little concern to the authors of the PR campaign.
This is clearly visible in Jake Sullivan’s statement, which refers to military aid to Ukraine in the amount of 61 billion dollars. Meanwhile, according to the National Security Act of the US Congress (in terms of aid to Ukraine), the direct supply of arms amounts to $7.8 billion. All other money goes either to order new weapons – in the next ten years, or to finance various NATO operations. In general, the rest of the allocated money has nothing to do with the armed struggle of Ukraine. Theoretically, this fiscal year (until September 2024), Ukraine can receive a MAXIMUM of $7.8 billion worth of weapons. Moreover, given the experience of previous years, it is not at all a fact that Ukraine will receive weapons for all the allocated 7.8 billion dollars even by the end of the calendar year. While we are talking about supplies within the framework of the $1 billion tranche, and considering the supply at the beginning of spring for $0.3 billion, Ukraine will receive $1.3 billion worth of weapons in 9 months.
In order to understand the size of real supplies of weapons to Ukraine, we will present the data, specified Andrii Ilarionov, a senior researcher at the Center for Global Freedom and Prosperity of the Cato Institute: in 2022, 11.6 billion dollars of aid was provided, and in 2023, it will be less – 9.4 billion.
Also, other experts have repeatedly noted that the provision of aid in 2023 was clearly insufficient for a massive counteroffensive. And this, not to mention the situation in Ukraine itself, which, according to the military, is not yet ready for a counteroffensive in 2025.
However, there were no plans to increase real arms supplies to Ukraine in Jake Sullivan’s statement. It should be noted that the huge PR conveyor belt that spun around the 61 billion dollars allegedly directed to Ukraine usually did not refer to those clauses that the Republicans added to the text of the law of the US Congress. However, for the Biden administration, these points are very important, given the PR role of helping Ukraine in this election campaign. The fact is that one of the points added by the Republicans is the need for the Biden administration to provide a plan for Ukraine within a maximum of two months, but it is not yet known what tasks the Biden administration sets for itself in helping Ukraine, what goals it sets and how it plans reach them. That is, the Biden team currently does not have any real program for Ukraine. This is clearly visible from the preparation of the law on assistance to Ukraine (which was renamed several times) actually from the beginning of the fiscal year in October 2023. Perhaps that is why Jake Sullivan reported this information to a friendly publication, in order to cloud the quite clear demand of the Republicans. Instead of real action, as has often happened, Biden’s team will swim in an ocean of PR.
Analysts who ignore the demands of the Republicans to Biden regarding the development of his administration’s position regarding the confrontation with Russia do not fully understand how difficult it is for the Biden administration to fulfill this demand of the Republicans. It should be noted that here the current administration of the Democrats has very sad precedents of similar situations in their predecessors. At one time, similar disputes in Congress were held on the issue of the war in Vietnam. In fact, throughout the war, neither the Kennedy administration, nor the Johnson administration, nor the Nixon team ever managed to propose a concept of the US position in this war. And although the Americans even put their troops into action, they were never able to offer a unified vision of the US’s participation in it, although the outcome was very sad compared to the Korean War.
The problem for Ukraine is that if Biden, instead of responding to the demand of the Republicans, lets go of PR ghosts, then the Republicans will not vote for new aid to Ukraine at all. Just over half of Republicans voted for the latest relief bill. However, the demands of the Republicans to President Biden – to give a clear answer about the administration’s plans to support Ukraine – is the most important factor in the continuation of it on the part of the Republicans. Jake Sullivan’s FT interview makes it clear that the Biden administration is not ready to talk directly with Republicans and is continuing its pre-election PR stunts, and we will pay for them.
Leonid Shtekel
