Scientists from NASA reported about the change in risks for asteroid 2024 YR4: although the danger of a collision with Earth has almost disappeared, the probability of it falling on the Moon has increased.
NASA scientists have warned about the possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon. At the time of its discovery in 2024 YR4, its risk of an encounter with Earth was estimated to be low, but recent calculations have reduced this probability to 0.004%.
New results obtained thanks to the James Webb Space Telescope made it possible to refine the estimates. The probability of a collision with the Moon on December 22, 2032 increased from 1.7% to 3.8%.
“The probability of an asteroid passing by the Moon is still 96.2%”, – said in a NASA statement.
The scientists also emphasized that even with a collision with the Moon, the orbit of 2024 YR4 will not change. Infrared data from the telescope helped to specify the size of the asteroid — from 53 to 67 meters, which roughly corresponds to the height of a 10-story building. According to the researchers, although the collision is unlikely, it may provide a unique opportunity to observe and study the reaction of the Moon’s surface.
Mark Burchell, professor of space sciences at the University of Kent, called the possible collision “a wonderful experiment and a wonderful opportunity.”
“Telescopes will certainly see it, and so will binoculars.” – he added.
Next month, the Webb telescope is expected to observe 2024 YR4 again for a more detailed analysis.
