According to the July Inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine, in 2026, the country may begin a gradual increase in tariffs for four main communal services: electricity, natural gas, centralized heating and hot water supply for the population. The document states that until the end of 2025, tariffs will remain stable thanks to the current moratorium, but starting next year, they are expected to gradually approach economically justified levels.
The NBU emphasizes that today’s level of tariffs allows keeping administrative inflation under control in the short term. However, postponing decisions on price revisions poses risks to the stability of the energy sector. The Central Bank emphasizes that financial equilibrium in the field of energy supply is impossible without adjusting the tariff policy, because long-term maintenance of prices at a low level leads to financial imbalances and undermines the stability of the energy market.
The National Bank draws attention to the high level of uncertainty – both regarding the time when the tariffs will be revised and the extent of possible increases. Such uncertainty makes it difficult to accurately predict the dynamics of inflation in the medium term.
The report separately warns that in the case of a rapid and one-time increase in tariffs, the consequences can be painful for the economy: a significant jump in inflation is expected, which will lead to an increase in the price of a wide range of goods and services. In addition, the sharp increase in the cost of energy carriers will force the state to increase spending on subsidies to support the poor.
At the same time, the report states: excessive delay in the decision to review tariffs may give a short-term reduction in inflation, but will create “quasi-fiscal” threats — the accumulation of hidden debts and the deterioration of the financial condition of state-owned energy enterprises. This will not only increase the risks of instability in the energy market, but will also hold back investments in the modernization of the industry, shifting inflationary pressures into the future.
