The issue of the return of Ukrainian citizens who left the country after the start of the full-scale invasion remains not only emotionally and demographically important, but also critically important for the recovery of the economy, functioning of the labor market, education system, medical infrastructure and social unity of the country. For more than three years, millions of Ukrainians have been living abroad under the status of temporary protection, actively adapting to new conditions, and this circumstance increasingly complicates the scenario of their quick return. Despite the declarative “temporary” nature of leaving, more and more families are gradually integrating into the new reality — with children who no longer remember Ukrainian schools, with parents who pay taxes in other countries.
Updated NBU assessment
In the July inflation reports The National Bank of Ukraine has published an updated assessment of the future dynamics of the return of citizens who left abroad as a result of the full-scale invasion of Russia. The paper revises an earlier forecast: the first positive balance of return, i.e. a situation where the number of returnees exceeds the number of departures, is now expected to occur no earlier than 2027. And even then, according to updated estimates, it is only about one hundred thousand people, while in previous forecasts, the expected number of returnees in 2027 was estimated at the level of five hundred thousand.
The correction of the forecast is based on objective factors — the preservation of high security risks on the territory of Ukraine, the adaptation of a large part of Ukrainian migrants to life abroad, as well as the extension of the temporary protection regime in the EU until March 2027. All these circumstances form a new reality: the return of refugees is no longer seen as a process that will begin in the near future.
The situation in 2025 and 2026
The National Bank has not changed its estimates for 2025 — it is expected that by the end of the year, about two hundred thousand citizens will leave the country. According to the regulator’s current vision, the same pace will be maintained in 2026. Thus, the issue of the return of even a part of the refugees is postponed for at least two years, and this forecast directly contradicts previous assumptions, according to which mass returns could begin as early as 2026.
The new assessment reflects not only the inertia of migration flows, but also a strategic assumption: in the medium term, most citizens who have settled abroad do not show a desire to return quickly, despite the declared temporary departure.
Reasons for delay in return
The National Bank emphasizes that the main factor that will determine the rate of return remains security risks. Regular shelling of the entire territory of Ukraine, attacks on civilian infrastructure, casualties among the civilian population and destroyed objects — all this keeps Ukraine in a high-risk zone that does not provide grounds for mass return.
The second factor is the adaptation of migrants in host countries. It’s not just about housing or getting a job. Many Ukrainians are officially employed, pay taxes, their children study in local schools and kindergartens, some manage to get an education or retrain. These changes create a new model of life, which over time is perceived as stable and does not require an urgent return to Ukraine.
In addition, the political factor remains valid. The European Union has extended the temporary protection regime until March 2027. After this date, each EU member state will decide what status to grant to Ukrainians in the future — whether to transfer them to a long-term residence regime or offer return mechanisms. This issue has already become part of internal political discussions in a number of states. Government decisions will depend not only on the war in Ukraine, but also on electoral processes, political narratives and immigration policy in general.
Socio-economic consequences for Ukraine
The loss of labor resources for a long period is already creating a significant imbalance in the labor market in Ukraine. According to the National Bank’s assessment, the long-term migration outflow and slow return lead to a persistent shortage of labor force, which is manifested in the uneven distribution of it between regions and types of economic activity. This slows down the pace of economic recovery after the devastating consequences of the war.
Due to the shortage of personnel, enterprises are forced to raise wages faster than labor productivity increases. Such dynamics can cause additional inflationary pressure, which in the conditions of the still unstable macro-financial situation is an additional challenge for the regulator.
At the same time, if hostilities intensify, shelling of rear regions increases, or control over new territories is lost, this may cause a new wave of citizens to leave. In such a scenario, the volume of emigration will only increase, which will further weaken the national labor market, domestic demand and the potential for economic recovery.
Is it possible to revive the return
The National Bank notes that a rapid improvement of the security situation could radically change the trajectory of migration dynamics. It is not only about the cessation of hostilities or the reduction of shelling, but about tangible stabilization, which gives reasons for citizens to return not with fear, but with faith in stability.
An additional stimulus for the return could be large-scale investment in infrastructure and industrial recovery, which will create jobs, especially in construction, transport, logistics, energy and the social sector. Targeted information campaigns that demonstrate employment opportunities, housing programs, and educational projects for children of returnees can also have an impact. However, the implementation of this scenario requires not only internal efforts of Ukraine, but also support from international partners, clear commitments for long-term recovery and clear security guarantees.
The updated forecast of the National Bank regarding the return of Ukrainian refugees indicates an overestimation of the real scale and pace of the migration movement. The onset of the net return is delayed until at least 2027, and even then the expected volumes are not significant. The reasons for this are the long-term war risk, the deep socialization of migrants in the EU countries, the prolongation of temporary protection and political uncertainty regarding the further legal status.
For Ukraine, this means the need to rethink personnel policy, mechanisms for attracting human capital, as well as the formation of systemic solutions to preserve social unity in the conditions of long-term resettlement of a part of citizens outside the state. A realistic view of the return of refugees is the first step to form an adequate state response to the demographic, economic and social challenges of the post-war period.
