“Our smarties, by destroying the defense industry, will thereby destroy the country”: Yuriy Kasyanov on the new booking rules

The modern war taking place on the territory of Ukraine poses unprecedented challenges to the state, business and society. One of the most controversial and important issues in this context is the reservation of conscript workers, especially those involved in industries critical to the country’s defense capability. The issue is maintaining a balance between the mobilization needs of the army and ensuring the continuity of production of weapons, equipment and other resources necessary for successful warfare.

This problem is exacerbated by the new booking rules that come into effect on December 1st. There are ongoing discussions in society regarding their expediency, justice, and impact on the state’s defense potential. On the one hand, critics call these changes a threat to the Ukrainian defense industry, on the other hand, the government claims that the decisions are due to the need for effective management of human resources in wartime.

The position of a military expert

Yuriy Kasyanov – volunteer, soldier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, activist of the Army SOS initiative, head of the “A.Drones” initiative and military expert, notes, that the new reservation rules raise serious doubts and are perceived as a threat to the Ukrainian defense industry, in particular to small innovative companies. According to the innovations, the reservation will be valid only until February 28, 2025, and the percentage of reserved employees will be limited to 50%. At the same time, the possibility of 100% reservation is available only with the approval of the Ministry of Defense, which creates space for subjectivity and corruption.

“On December 1, new rules for the reservation of conscripts are put into effect. These new/old rules will finally kill the Ukrainian defense industry, leaving only the enterprises of the state-owned Ukroboronprom, which supplies the troops with unusable 120-mm mines, and also privileged ones private defense companies of military oligarchs close to power – those who profit from war.

First, the reservation is now only valid until February 28, 2025. That is, the same state that yesterday allowed to reserve drone assemblers, designers, and programmers for six months, today says: “Stop! – only until the end of February.” What, after February 28, drones are no longer needed?

From February 28, the 100 percent reservation of employees of defense enterprises, which was allowed not so long ago, will be canceled. Now only 50%. That is, it is possible 100% – but with the consent of the shadowy officials of the Ministry of Defense, who will subjectively decide which enterprise needs which number of employees.” – emphasizes Kasyanov.

According to the expert, in practice this means that defense enterprises engaged in the development and production of drones, modern electronic warfare systems, software and other critical equipment may lose half of their employees. This is especially true for small companies employing up to 50 people, each of whom has unique knowledge and skills. For such enterprises, the mobilization of a significant part of the personnel is actually equal to the stoppage of production, which can have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine’s defense capability.

“At the beginning of this year, there was also 50% plus permission from the General Staff, and while the companies were waiting for the permission of the officials of the General Staff, half of their employees were taken to the army, the companies could not fulfill the state defense order, the troops did not receive drones. Now – again a return to the old corrupt and destructive for our defense practices.

For small private innovative enterprises of the defense industry, returning to the reservation norm of 50% of the number of conscripts will mean death: usually 10–20–50 people work in such companies, each of whom is irreplaceable in his place, has unique knowledge, skills, experience, mobilizing half of these people would stop the development and production of weapons and make our defeat in the war inevitable.

Let me remind you that drones, the same “wedding drones” of Reznikov, have already played a key role in this war, but now, it turns out, not drones are needed, but people, because the authorities stubbornly do not want to mobilize the young generation and are completely raking in the middle and older in hope to get some votes in the possible post-war elections. Only there will be no elections: with such a policy, we will lose the war, and there will definitely be no Ukrainian elections here.

It is obvious that, having lost half of the conscripted workers, Ukrainian small defense companies, of which more than 70% are in the Ukrainian defense industry, will not fulfill state defense orders, drones will not go to the front, and the scarce personnel – engineers, designers, electronics engineers, programmers – will be taken away by the TCC, well and the remnants of human resources after the liquidation of the private defense industry will be picked up by oligarchs close to power, who profit from war” – the expert believes.

System problems

According to the expert, the defense industry is being destroyed in Ukraine due to bureaucratic restrictions and short-sighted policies. For example, from February 28, all enterprises will lose the status of “critical production”, which will automatically deprive them of the right to reserve workers. Instead, the right to reserve will remain with large companies that meet excessively high criteria regarding income and payment of EUV. This, in turn, creates inequality between small and large market players and concentrates resources in the hands of the chosen ones.

In addition to the 50% employee limit, the new rules include another controversial rule — an employee must have worked at a defense company for at least three months to be eligible for reservation. This means that new employees immediately become potential recruits. This approach only deepens the personnel crisis in the defense sector.

“Another “innovation” – now you can’t book an employee/employee who hasn’t worked at a defense enterprise for a quarter. That is, you hire an engineer, officially, and you can’t book – and he immediately becomes a victim of the TCC, because the enterprise itself officially informs TCC, that he has a conscript who is not subject to reservation. Do you understand what trash?

In order to book an employee, he must have worked officially for three months, and at the same time he can easily be mobilized. Where is the logic? What is she in? Such a provision of the law is directly aimed at the destruction of the Ukrainian defense industry.

In addition, from February 28, all enterprises lose the status of “critical production”, which gives the right to reserve employees. This is legal nonsense in general – the state changes laws retroactively, does not keep its word. That is, the defense companies, which with struggle, blood, and patience went through all the complicated bureaucratic procedures and received the status of “critically important”, say, by March or April next year, will now lose it.

At the same time, the status of “critically important” and the right to reserve employees will be given to large companies of oligarchs close to them – which pay EUV over €1.5 million or have an income in foreign currency over €32 million, whose assets cost more than UAH 200 million or net income – more than UAH 1.5 billion. And their owners, members of the supervisory boards, are now 100% reserved. Such is social justice…”, – emphasizes Kasyanov.

Precedents in history

According to Yuriy Kasyanov, historical experience confirms that during periods of great wars, developed countries implemented measures to preserve qualified personnel in industry. For example, during the First World War in Great Britain and Germany, specialists were forcibly returned from the front to production, even if they voluntarily joined the army. Similar practices were used during the Second World War in the USSR, the USA and other countries.

“Our smart people in the parliament and the government, who pass such “wonderful” laws and regulations, seem to be completely ignorant of history – they do not know how in Great Britain and Germany during the First World War they were forcibly – forcibly! – returned from the front under the threat of severe punishment skilled workers and engineers to defense factories, even those who volunteered for the war were returned by force.

Our smart people know nothing about how during the Second World War in Britain, the USA, Germany, and the USSR, strict laws and cruel punishments were introduced for sending professionals to the front – manufacturers of weapons and military equipment.

Our smart people, having destroyed the defense industry, will thereby destroy the country, leaving the army without drones and EW. – believes Kasyanov.

Implications for defense and society

The expert warns that the loss of a significant part of personnel in small defense companies may lead to the failure of the implementation of the state defense order. This, in turn, will mean a reduction in the supply of drones, modern EW systems and other critical means to the front. In addition, in the conditions of war, Ukraine risks losing valuable engineers, programmers, designers – people who have irreplaceable experience and knowledge.