Public opinion does not exist? Integration into the EU and NATO through the prism of opinion polls

Back in the 1970s, the French sociologist Pierre Bourdieu in his landmark report “Public opinion does not exist” called sociological polls a tool of political influence. According to his conviction, such studies often create an illusion, as if a certain opinion prevails in society, which everyone should accept as the truth.

Today, criticism of sociological research published by the media does not lose its relevance. Such polls are often used as an argument in favor of certain political forces, and this raises questions about their objectivity. However, the problem is not only that sociologists often depend on customers. The results can be distorted even without falsification, simply by deliberately choosing the wording of questions or constructing a sample.

In addition, the very method of sociological surveys raises doubts among researchers. Its cognitive value is often limited, because research questions and methods have a great influence on the final data. Therefore, polls that we see in the media do not always reflect the real picture of the mood in society.

Recently, KMIS published the results of a strategically important for our country survey of citizens regarding their attitude to membership in the EU and NATO. In the published press release, sociologists also warn about the significant sensitivity of the answers to the wording of the questions. For example, there is a difference between the attitude towards a certain institution and the respondent’s proactive position towards it.

Using the example of three surveys conducted during 2024, KMIS shows how the results vary depending on the dimension of attitudes towards the EU and NATO, which is reflected in the different wording of the questions.

Difficult answers to simple questions

How many Ukrainians support joining the EU and NATO? At first glance, this seems like a simple question, but even among sociologists there is no consensus on how to measure it properly.

One option is to ask people directly whether they want Ukraine to become a member of the EU or NATO. For example, in the May survey of KMIS, the questions were formulated in the simplest way: “By 2030, would you like Ukraine to be a member state of the EU / NATO?”. Response options included yes, no, don’t know, or refusal to answer.

Another approach focuses on people’s proactivity, that is, their willingness to act. It is logical to assume that if the issue of joining the EU or NATO is important to a person, he or she will most likely vote in a referendum. In September 2024, sociologists of KMIS asked in their study: “Imagine that a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to the EU or NATO is currently being held. You can vote for, against or abstain. What is your choice?”.

Respondents could choose the following options: “for admission”, “against admission”, “would not vote” or “it is difficult to say”.

Another way to understand the attitude of Ukrainians to European and Euro-Atlantic integration is to measure the level of trust in the relevant institutions. In December 2024, as part of the KMIS survey, sociologists asked: “I will name several social institutions and public figures. Please tell me how much you trust them”. The list included the EU, NATO and the USA.

Respondents could choose one of the following answers: “completely trust”, “rather trust”, “hard to say”, “rather not trust” or “not at all trust”. The option “hard to say” was immediately voiced so that the respondent could choose it if necessary.

How do the answers vary depending on the wording of the question?

According to the survey data, 90% of Ukrainians want to see Ukraine in the EU, and 84% – in NATO. These figures demonstrate significant support for European and Euro-Atlantic integration among the population.

However, not everyone is ready to be proactive. In a hypothetical referendum on joining the EU, 68% of respondents said they were ready to come to the polling stations and vote “yes”. A similar indicator for NATO is also 68%. At the same time, 9% would vote against in the case of the EU and 10% in the case of NATO.

Often, such referendum results can be used for manipulation. For example, if we take into account only those who will go to vote, then support for joining the EU is 88%, and for NATO – 87%. But when these figures are presented without specifying the percentages among all respondents, one can get the impression of almost total support. In fact, about 22% in the case of the EU and 16% in the case of NATO want to see Ukraine in these unions, but are not ready to actively express this position during the referendum.

Infographic: IA “FACT”

Support, but do not trust?

Interestingly, although the majority supports the accession, the level of trust in the EU and NATO is much lower. 46% of respondents trust the EU (19% do not trust), and 43% trust NATO (25% do not trust). This means that both unions have a positive trust balance, but do not yet enjoy overwhelming support.

It is a paradoxical situation, among Ukrainians there is a significant number of those who, despite certain doubts or mistrust of the EU and NATO, still believe that Ukraine should become part of these institutions

Repeated public opinion polls show that Ukrainians generally support EU and NATO membership. At the same time, it was important for sociologists to understand which of these unions they consider more priority. According to the data, 46% of respondents prefer NATO, while 22% chose the EU as their main priority. This indicates that although the majority of the population supports integration with both alliances, the issue of security remains the most acute and topical for Ukrainians, which explains the interest in the North Atlantic Alliance.

Infographic: IA “FACT”

The number of supporters of Ukraine’s neutrality is growing

It is also interesting to note the change in sentiment over the last year. The number of those who believe that Ukraine should not become a member of any alliance increased from 12% in October 2023 to 22% in December 2024. This may signal a certain disappointment or fatigue from the complexities of integration processes, especially against the background of a long war and expectations from international partners.

At the same time, the share of those who consider NATO membership a priority decreased from 54% to 46%. For the EU, the indicators remained almost unchanged, which indicates the stability of support for European integration, although it is not as urgent a need as security guarantees.

The geopolitical choice in favor of the EU and NATO is obvious, but not indisputable

The main problem is the low level of trust in these institutions. Ukrainians recognize the critical importance of Western support, but many are frustrated by untimely or insufficient aid. This fuels doubts about the West’s readiness for a just peace for Ukraine. At the same time, this criticality contributes to the formation of a more independent view of Ukraine, increasing self-esteem and understanding the need to build one’s own capacity.

The risks due to insufficient level of trust cannot be discounted either. In particular, it is about the growth of Euroscepticism and populist narratives that may question the speed or conditions of integration. The most dangerous is the destruction of faith in the West as a role model, which can lead to total despair, which Russia actively seeks.

To the USA – with cautious optimism

Ukrainians treat the USA with respect and cautious optimism. 40% trust this country as an ally capable of supporting the fight for freedom, while 23% have doubts. At the same time, a significant part – 36% – choose uncertainty, perhaps due to difficulties in assessing the influence of the USA on the future of Ukraine.

This distribution reflects a deep appreciation for support, but also frustration when expectations exceed reality. Ukrainians understand that the US plays an important role in international support, but they seek greater clarity, timeliness and decisiveness in actions.

Infographic: IA “FACT”

And what does the guru of sociology Bourdieu say about the survey?

Pierre Bourdieu criticizes three common mistakes that often accompany public opinion polls. The first mistake is to assume that people can have their own opinions. The second is that every opinion is important and deserves to be recorded in the survey. The third mistake is the belief that the questions asked in surveys are those that everyone agrees with and therefore can be asked to all respondents.

Bourdieu believes that these errors distort the results of the polls. He points to the manipulation when sociology presents the opinions of a minority of people as the opinions of the majority, while the real majority is ignored. This creates a situation where people can agree with those statements that are supported by certain groups, especially during political crises. As a result, people’s choices in such polls are not the result of their own opinion, but rather an adaptation to what has already formed in society.