Future quantum computers will be able to easily break all modern means of digital protection, from bank ciphers to the cryptography that protects government databases and private correspondence. He warns about this The Conversation, citing new research that has changed the way we think about the power of quantum machines. According to him, hacking such systems is no longer a question of centuries – a million qubits are enough, and the entire digital world is vulnerable.
It is primarily about the RSA-2048 encryption algorithm, which was considered the gold standard of Internet security. Its structure is based on an extremely complex mathematical problem – the multiplication of two gigantic prime numbers. Ordinary computers are not capable of factoring such a product even in billions of years. But quantum machines are a game-changer. Thanks to qubits—units of information that can be in both 0 and 1 states at the same time—quantum computers can test millions of possible solutions simultaneously, bypassing barriers that remain impassable for classical machines.
A new wave of anxiety was caused by the publication of scientists, including Google’s quantum artificial intelligence team. They proved that to break RSA-2048, not 20 million qubits, as previously thought, but only one million may be enough. Technically, this threshold remains unattainable – the most modern quantum processors have a little more than a thousand qubits, and they suffer from errors. But it is a matter of time. And it is not quantum machines themselves that pose the greatest threat, but those who are already preparing to take advantage of their potential.
Cybersecurity experts warn that hackers have long used the “collect now – decrypt later” strategy. This means that even today encrypted documents, correspondence, medical records and commercial data are being stolen so that in a few years, when the necessary quantum power appears, everything can be decrypted in a matter of hours.
Realizing the scale of the threat, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology announced an international competition in 2016 to develop algorithms resistant to quantum attacks. In 2024, the world saw the first three quantum-resistant standards: ML-KEM for key exchange, and ML-DSA and SLH-DSA for digital signatures. However, implementing these tools overnight is impossible. Encryption systems are deeply integrated into every banking process, web resource and mobile application. This requires not only time, but also careful preparation.
That is why the UK’s National Cyber Security Center has proposed a plan to transition to a new cryptography by 2035. The first step should be a full inventory of vulnerable systems by 2028. This is the only way to prevent confidential data that should remain secret for decades from becoming the property of those who know how to wait.
At the same time, experts are reassuring: much of the information we use every day — for example, streaming service accounts or personal photos — is currently either not an object of interest to hackers, or is protected by encryption that is not so easy to break even with the help of a quantum computer. But data of state importance, military documentation, medical archives and large financial operations — this is what needs urgent modernization even now.
The threat has not yet become a reality, but it is very real. And while quantum computers remain in the labs, the smartest attackers are already laying digital traps — waiting for the moment when the technology will open someone else’s security like a can.
