Should we expect an increase in the birth rate of children after the end of hostilities
War is always accompanied by deep upheavals in all spheres of life, and demography is no exception. The demographic situation in Ukraine has always been one of the most difficult in Europe. Today, during a full-scale war, this problem becomes especially acute. Mass migration, increasing mortality and declining birth rates are direct consequences of military actions that affect the future of the country. The birth rate, which is an indicator of society’s confidence in the future, suffers perhaps the most. In conditions of constant danger, fear for life and instability, people postpone the decision to have children. However, even in such difficult circumstances, a unique situation is observed in Ukraine: the birth rate is not the lowest in the world, which gives grounds for cautious optimism.
How the war affected the demography of Ukraine
War always brings suffering, loss and destruction. Demographer Oleksandr Gladun notes, that in conditions of constant danger, fear for life and uncertainty, people are less inclined to have children. This lowers the birth rate. At the same time, the war leads to an increase in mortality due to direct combat, health problems, difficult access to medical services and other factors.
“In order to correctly estimate the number of children born during the war, it is necessary to know the age structure of the mothers, but now we do not have such accurate data. However, according to experts’ estimates, 100 women in Ukraine give birth to 90 children today. According to the UN, this indicator is 98 children per 100 women”, – explains the demographer.
According to him, this means that even in such difficult conditions, the birth rate in Ukraine is slightly higher than in peaceful South Korea. But this is not a reason for optimism, since Ukraine is among the countries with the lowest birth rate in the world.
Fertility and mortality: war statistics
Modern data show that the death rate significantly exceeds the birth rate. A stable population requires 100 deaths for every 100 births. However, according to Gladun, even before the start of the war, the situation was difficult. In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were 210 deaths for every 100 births. In 2022, this figure increased to 263 deaths, and in the first half of 2024 it reached a record 286 deaths per 100 births.
These figures indicate a significant imbalance that threatens further population decline. However, the statistics cover only territories controlled by Ukraine, so the real situation may be even worse.
What will happen after the war?
After the end of the war, according to Oleksandr Gladun, one can expect the so-called “compensation processes”. This phenomenon is observed after every major upheaval and consists in a temporary increase in the birth rate. People who postponed the decision to have children because of the war are starting to create families and have offspring. However, the demographer warns that this effect will be short-term and last only about three years. After that, the birth rate will return to the natural level that it would have been without the influence of the war.
As for general demographics, the situation in Ukraine remains critical. The population has been declining since 1993, and the war has only accelerated this process through mass migration and high mortality. According to forecasts, even after the end of hostilities, the population of Ukraine will continue to decrease. The rate of reduction will depend on the duration of the war, the level of economic stability and state policy in the field of demography.
Gladun emphasizes that the main task for Ukraine after the war will be to stabilize the population. This will require active work in several directions: reducing mortality, stimulating birth rates, and creating conditions for the return of migrants. The formation of a positive attitude towards family values and the support of young families will also play an important role.
According to the expert, for to stabilize the population of Ukraine, it is necessary to improve access to medical services, develop the health care system and conduct disease prevention. In addition, the state should support young families, create financial assistance programs, provide affordable housing and quality education for children. Also, economic stability, security and employment opportunities should become priorities of state policy.
Oleksandr Gladun emphasizes that the stabilization of the population is not only a matter of the survival of the nation, but also the basis for the recovery and development of Ukraine. The future of the entire country depends on how effectively these issues will be resolved. The demographic situation in Ukraine was difficult even before the war, but now it has approached a critical limit. The war became a catalyst for many processes that exacerbated demographic challenges. However, after the end of the war, Ukraine will have a chance to stabilize the situation thanks to the right policy and the support of the population.
