The Accounting Chamber has identified tax risks that could cause the State Budget to fall short of funds
The Accounting Chamber identified risks of underfulfillment of the revenue plan from customs payments, subsoil use rent, and excise tax on goods produced in Ukraine by the end of the year. This is reported by the Accounting Chamber.
The auditors have prepared a conclusion “On the results of the analysis of the implementation of the law On the State Budget of Ukraine for 2025 in January-September”.
“According to the results of the audit analysis, risks of under-fulfillment of the plan for the collection of taxes collected upon import of goods into the customs territory of Ukraine, rent for the use of subsoil of national importance and excise tax on goods produced in Ukraine by the end of the year were identified, the report states.
The reason for this, according to the auditors, may be lower than forecasted exchange rate of the hryvnia against foreign currencies, reduction in natural gas production and fuel production, in particular due to damage to production infrastructure.
In addition, corporate profits in the first half of 2025 decreased by 10% compared to last year, which increases the risk of failure to meet the annual plan for income tax revenues.
The tax debt to the state budget has increased to 201.1 billion hryvnia since the beginning of the year, which negatively affected budget execution and increases the risks of revenue shortfalls in 2025.
“The growth occurred primarily due to a 13.6-fold increase (to UAH 61.3 billion) in the additional penalty accrued by tax authorities for violation of payment terms by business entities in the field of foreign economic activity, the auditors explain.
The total revenues of the State Budget amounted to UAH 2.7 trillion. Compared to January-September 2024, they increased by 25%, however, the growth rate remains slower than in previous periods.
The general fund revenue plan for three quarters was exceeded by 5.2%, in particular due to the growth in wages and profits of business entities. The special fund’s revenues increased by 26.8% compared to the same period last year.
“Despite the intensification of attacks by Russian aggressors on energy and transport infrastructure facilities, a decrease in industrial production and exports of goods and services, the Ukrainian economy grew in the third quarter of 2025,”, the report states.
The main drivers of economic growth were construction (+15.5%) and retail trade (+6%). At the same time, international support played a significant role in filling the budget.
The Accounting Chamber will recommend that the government instruct the chief spending officers to analyze the implementation of budget programs. In the event that expenditures cannot be made in the planned amounts, the auditors advise considering the feasibility of redistributing budget appropriations to direct the balance to other urgent needs of the state and society.
Among other recommendations are to reduce tax arrears, ensure timely and full fulfillment of obligations under the Ukraine Facility program, as well as repay budget payables and receivables and prevent the formation of new overdue obligations.
