The head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, announced the Russian Federation’s desire to end the war by 2026
The Russian authorities aim to end the war by the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026 with their own victory, since already in the middle of 2025 the country will face serious economic difficulties and a possible mobilization that can destabilize the socio-political situation. This was stated by the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov at the annual YES meeting organized by the Viktor Pinchuk Foundation in Kyiv, referring to data from Russia.
“For them, the year 2025, the boundary between its end and the beginning of 2026, is key. They want to end the war by this point because, according to their own calculations, if Russia does not come out of the war as a winner, in the next 30 years it will lose the opportunity to be a world superpower, which is what they are aiming for.” Budanov said.
According to Budanov, Russia predicts the beginning of “all problems” in the summer of 2025, when economic and socio-political factors will combine. Currently, Russia is still dealing with economic difficulties, but it is already feeling their impact, and the situation will only get worse.
Budanov noted that it is expected that by the summer of 2025, the negative impact on the Russian economy will become very noticeable. In this regard, the Russian authorities are trying to accelerate the implementation of a number of processes in order to prepare for this period. Their goal is to end the war in their favor.
Another serious problem for Russia is the issue of understaffing in the army.
“By the summer of 2025, Russia will face a choice: either to declare mobilization or to reduce the intensity of hostilities, which may become critical for them.” Budanov stressed.
According to him, contrary to official statements, war fatigue is already present in Russia, and it has affected a significant part of the population. Although the Russians are happy that the country was able to occupy more than 30% of the territory of Ukraine, and they are satisfied with the high salaries in the army, the number of volunteers is decreasing. This forced Russia to increase one-time payments upon signing the contract to UAH 2 million.
In addition, Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory had a significant impact on the psyche of the Russian population.
“Before the explosions in Moscow and other cities, Russians believed that they were the strongest country in the world. But these events destroyed this myth.” Budanov added.
Referring to Russian documents, he also noted that if there is no victory by the end of 2025, Russia will lose its superpower status, leaving only the United States and China.
“The Russian leadership is clearly aware of this, so it will do everything possible to win the war. Otherwise, they will lose their place in global processes and will be forced to limit themselves only to regional leadership, which they are categorically not satisfied with.” Budanov concluded.
