The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been going on for more than three years now, leaving behind destruction, pain and fatigue felt by everyone from the military on the frontline to the families who have lost their homes and loved ones and have been forced to flee for their lives. The war, which once seemed like a temporary storm, has become an integral part of the lives of millions of Ukrainians. Three years of struggle, endless losses, constant anxiety and hope that the long-awaited peace is about to come. But today, Ukrainians are faced with the question not only of victory on the battlefield, but also of survival in this protracted nightmare: how much longer can the nation endure this incredible burden? Is there a line approaching beyond which emotional and moral breakdown will occur? The society is already at the end of its endurance, and not only the future of the war, but also the fate of the country depends on it.
Emotional background: exhaustion on the verge of collapse
According to the latest poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in September-October 2024, 63% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the war as long as it takes to win. The poll shows that since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, attitudes have remained largely stable.
From the beginning of the full-scale invasion until February 2024, the situation remained almost unchanged: consistently, about 71-73% of Ukrainians declared their readiness to endure the war for as long as it takes (plus 2-3% expressed their readiness to endure for at least another year). During the same period, about 18-21% said that their endurance was limited to a few months or six months. However, between February and October 2024, for the first time, there was a decrease in the share of those who are ready to withstand a war without time limits, although the majority – 63% – still hold this position. In addition, the share of those who consider a one-year period has increased from 3% to 6%, and overall, 69% of Ukrainians say they are ready to withstand a relatively long period.
Interestingly, the percentage of those who choose a shorter term (a few months or six months) has remained almost the same – 19% now versus 21% in February 2024, which can be considered a statistical error. Instead, the number of those who could not give a specific answer has increased significantly – from 4% to 12%, which obviously indicates an increase in general uncertainty about the future among Ukrainians.
At the same time, the number of those who support the continuation of resistance for a short time has also increased. This trend is observed in the south and east of Ukraine, where the share of respondents who are ready to endure the war for a year or more has changed from 71% to 57% and from 73% to 48%, respectively.
In addition, the survey shows a direct link between the assessment of Russia’s strength and one’s own willingness to endure war. Thus, among those who believe that Russia is running out of resources, 77% are ready to endure as long as necessary. At the same time, among those who believe in Russia’s unlimited resources, 28% say they are prepared to endure a relatively short period of several months to six months.
In September 2024, a similar survey was conducted by the Razumkov Centre. According to it, 83% of respondents believe in Ukraine’s victory in the war. The respondents’ views on the duration of the war are as follows:
- 39% believe the war will end in 1-2 years – 39% of respondents;
- the war will end by the end of 2024 – 19.5% of respondents;
- the war will last from 3 to 5 years – 15% of respondents;
- 5% – the war will last more than 5 years – 5% of respondents;
- 2% – that the war will end ‘unlikely in my lifetime’ – 2% of respondents.
Regarding what can be considered a victory, a relative majority (38%) of those who believe in victory say that the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the borders as of January 2014 can be considered a victory.
The Fakt news agency also conducted a similar survey among its readers, which showed slightly different results. So, to the question: how long are you willing to endure the war? We received the following answers:
9% – as long as it takes;
0% – 1 year;
3% – a few months;
88% – I do not want to endure it, it should be ended now.
So, while a significant part of the population is still ready to endure difficult circumstances for the sake of victory, most Ukrainians are tired of the war and want the fighting to end as soon as possible. People are beginning to recognise their own limits of endurance, and those who showed a high level of patriotism and cohesion at the beginning of the war are now more likely to show depression, anxiety and uncertainty.
It is worth noting that families who have lost their homes or are living in constant danger bear the greatest burden, and their ability to adapt to the situation is decreasing with each passing month. It is becoming increasingly difficult for people to find the internal resources to continue the struggle, and this sends a dangerous signal to society. Especially when government officials claim that there are no funds to support IDPs.
Psychological front: who is holding on and who is broken
The KIIS survey also shows a clear regional distribution. In the western regions of Ukraine, 75% of respondents are ready to fight to the bitter end, while in the eastern regions, which are directly affected by the fighting, this figure drops to 48%. This is because people living in the areas of active hostilities are subjected to the greatest physical and emotional pressure, which undermines their psychological stability.
Studies show that the most vulnerable categories are the elderly and families with small children. Among this group, almost a third of respondents said they had already lost hope for a quick end to the war and needed psychological help.
According to experts, public fatigue from the war could become a serious challenge for the state. At the same time, most Ukrainians are still committed to a long-term struggle, which is an important factor for the country’s political elite and international partners.
Public opinion
The KIIS poll aroused strong emotions in the society and became a reason for heated discussions.
Mariya Pavlenko, Facebook user:
“I would answer as many questions as necessary. But in reality, I don’t know how to survive the winter. And I’m not in the worst situation, even though I have my own housing.”
Alex Harris, Facebook user:
‘Such statistics are mostly due to the western part, where the war is only on TV, maybe we should bring people from the west to Kharkiv or Kherson from time to time, then we will see their indomitable spirit.’
Galina Nevs, Facebook user:
“Why are there no queues at the military registration and enlistment offices if so many people agree to continue the war? This arithmetic of the polls is not friendly to logic.”
Artur Galchenko, Facebook user:
“From a psychological point of view, this is easily explained. People, for example, go to a football game to cheer for a team, but not all fans want to go out and play football. It’s the same with the war, many people want to win, but not everyone wants to mobilise.”
Ptah Vilnyi, Facebook user:
“The poll was obviously conducted among the NWC and those who, after a month of training and a van, found themselves in a trench with a machine gun. Oops, probably not among them…’.
Oleksandr Hakh, Facebook user:
“With a government that does not value human life, I am not ready to endure this war, like most people, to bear the burden and so on. As long as high-ranking officials are making money and are ready to fight with other people’s hands to the last Ukrainian.”
Obviously, if the state does not provide support to its citizens, a wave of demoralisation may rise in society, which is dangerous for both the front and the rear. Experts predict that Ukrainians will continue to resist, but the state must do everything possible to keep people’s faith in victory and provide them with all the resources they need to restore their mental stability. Most experts agree that social support and psychological assistance should be a priority in the coming months, otherwise society may face a critical level of emotional exhaustion.
The KIIS poll showed that Ukrainians are a people with an indomitable spirit, but even iron nerves have their limits. It is important to prevent this line from being crossed. The war is not only about physical losses, it is also about the psychological resilience of the nation, which is now at the limit of endurance.
It is also worth taking into account the opinion of those who are directly on the front line defending our country at the cost of their own lives, asking those who go to bed every night not knowing whether they will wake up in the morning.
Will Ukrainians survive this marathon of war? Much depends on how society can adapt to new challenges and how quickly the government and international partners provide the necessary support to avoid the catastrophic consequences of an emotional collapse.
Ukrainians demonstrate incredible resilience every day in the face of the horrors of war, but even the strongest have their limits. Polls show that fatigue and exhaustion are becoming dangerous realities that threaten to break what was unbreakable. The limit of endurance is close, and each new day of war is a test for millions.
However, the question is not only how much longer Ukrainians are willing to fight and endure the war, but also when the long-awaited peace will come.
