National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reviewed inflation forecast for 2025, raising the expected level from 8.4% to 8.7%, but kept the guidance for a return to the target of 5% in 2026.
“Inflation will return to decline in the summer. The expected increase in harvests will contribute to the reduction of food inflation from the third quarter of 2025 and its stabilization at a relatively low level in the future.” – said the head of the NBU Andriy Pishnyi.
According to Pyshny, the main inflationary factors will gradually weaken thanks to the balanced monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, the improvement of the energy supply situation and the reduction of tension in the labor market. An additional deterrent effect will ensure a decrease in world oil prices due to global trade conflicts.
The head of the National Bank noted that inflation in the first months of the year grew within the limits foreseen by the previous macro forecast, reaching 14.6% in annual terms in March. This is due to the consequences of last year’s crop failure, rising prices of excise goods, as well as fundamental factors such as rising business costs for energy, wages and high consumer demand.
“The March survey showed a further improvement in household expectations, and Internet search statistics showed a decrease in the population’s attention to the topic of inflation from peak levels at the beginning of the year,” Pyshnyi explained.
At the same time, inflationary expectations on the part of businesses and banks deteriorated somewhat. Despite the annual growth of inflation, the general level of expectations among economic subjects remains relatively stable.
We will remind that inflation in Ukraine, which decreased to 5.1% in 2023 after increasing to 26.6% in 2022, rose to 12.0% in 2024. According to the State Statistics Service, in March of this year, inflation reached 14.6% against 13.4% in February, and the base rate increased to 12.4% from 12.0%. Earlier, in January, the National Bank of Ukraine revised the inflation forecast for 2025 — then expectations were raised from 6.9% to 8.4%.
