The issue of the nuclear threat was again at the center of the world agenda due to the escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine. This topic perplexes both politicians and ordinary citizens around the world. The war unleashed by the Kremlin has many dimensions: military, economic, political and informational. However, the most resonant aspect remains the nuclear rhetoric, which not only causes panic, but also endangers global security.
Historically, nuclear weapons have always been seen as a tool of deterrence rather than a means of warfare. But today, for the first time in a decade, the probability of its application has become a topic not only of closed discussions, but also of open public statements. Threats from the Russian Federation cause concern: is a nuclear strike possible, and what can stop Putin?
Ukrainian political analyst, deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of the 8th convocation, Vadym Denysenko believesthat Putin failed to intimidate the West with threats of nuclear war.
“Putin failed to conduct an information blitz and scare the West with a nuclear war. A few days after the use of a ballistic missile over the Dnipro, it became finally clear that the Kremlin’s calculation failed, and Ukraine’s use of British and American missiles does not (at least for now) pose a nuclear threat for the world and Ukraine”, Denysenko notes.
According to him, Western support for Ukraine continues, and modern British and American missiles demonstrate their effectiveness without escalating to the nuclear level. So, the first stage — an attempt to destabilize the West through fear — ended unsuccessfully.
Now, according to the analyst, the second stage — the so-called “war of nerves” — is underway. It precedes possible negotiations, which can begin only after the stabilization of the front. The Russians are stockpiling resources, including weapons and manpower, for a grueling shelling of Ukraine.
Denisenko emphasizes:
“We have now entered the second stage of this battle (I would call it the ‘pre-negotiation battle’). And this stage is a war of nerves. How long will this stage last? It looks like at least a few weeks. The Russians have stockpiled enough weapons for exhausting for Ukraine shelling and throwing everything they have from human power.
It is also worth paying attention to the fact that now, in terms of manpower and its accumulation, at least two positive factors for the Kremlin have coincided. After Kursk, when there was a threat of mobilization without money, the number of contract workers who had previously taken a waiting position and waited for an increase in contract prices increased somewhat (they were simply afraid that there would be mobilization and money would not be paid). In addition, the autumn dembel has now ended, which also provided additional resources for countermeasures. There is a third factor, while the theoretical factor is the collapse of the ruble. It’s likely that this could lead to another small spike in the number of people still considering trading life for money. Therefore, unfortunately, our predictions that the Russian people should end in November-December turned out to be somewhat wrong. Now we can say that by March-April the enemy can conduct meat assaults.”
The political analyst names the reasons for the war:
“There are three reasons for this war: 1) Russia ceased to be the third pole of the world; 2) Russia lost unlimited police functions in the post-Soviet space; 3) Putin believed that by annexing Ukraine he would stop the de-Slavization of Russia. The Kremlin thought that a quick three-day war would allow to resolve all three issues. Now it is clear that none of the three points will be solved by Putin. But these are still the main factors why Putin wants to continue the war
Moreover, he understands that under any circumstances he has the money to wage war for another year and a half or two years, and maybe a little more (it all depends on the oil situation). The following factors speak against the continuation of the war:
1) Russia is becoming technologically dependent on China in the sectors of the 21st century economy, and they have a maximum of 2-3 years to avoid turning into a country that cannot build its economy at all without China;
2) Russia is afraid of the collapse of the price of oil, with which Trump scares them, which can cause internal problems, because there will not be enough money for anything. Simply put, Putin has a dilemma in the negotiation process: to continue the war and try to achieve the goals set in 2022, which is practically unrealistic, or to take a step back and achieve the lifting of sanctions. So far, there is no answer to this question, first of all, from Putin himself.”
According to Denysenko, despite the pressure from the radical environment, which considers a nuclear attack a way to extend his political life, Putin himself is not ready to make this decision, he fears not only for his life, but also for two key things. First, the final isolation of Russia, which will become inevitable after a nuclear strike. Second, his own place in history, which Putin wants to preserve as a leader who strengthened Russia and did not turn it into an outcast.
“The nuclear strike, which various Russian politicians talked about so much, is becoming a factor in today’s political rhetoric (despite the ballistic strike on the Dnipro rhetoric) for a number of reasons. It seems to me the following: Putin has a group of radicals around him (Patrushev, Kovalchukai and partially Chemezov and Vaino ) – old grandfathers (except Vaino) who want to be more radical than Putin and play hawks. And they sincerely believe that a nuclear strike will prolong their political life and restore Russia’s greatness. And they begin to shake Putin in public (the main speaker is Kovalchuk, Putin’s partner in historical discussions and, no less important, the Kremlin’s chief gerontologist, who proves to Putin that he can live it is possible up to 130 years).
Unfortunately, it seems that unlike the Caribbean crisis, when there was one public opponent of Khrushchev (Mikoyan), now there may not be a public opponent (apart from Medvedev’s statement that “we are not crazy”, we have not heard anything). A nuclear strike, in the understanding of these grandfathers, would cement their power and the power of their children. Although this is also a myth. There is another character – Putin’s deputy head of administration Kiriyenko, who silently watches all this and believes that Putin’s post-nuclear isolation will turn him (Kiriyenko) into the de facto President.
Who is against this? No matter how strange it sounds, this is Putin himself. Or rather his fear. Putin is afraid not only for his life, but also for two other things: first, he is very afraid of final isolation. And a nuclear strike will most likely lead to exactly that. Secondly, he is afraid of losing his chapter in the history book. And these two things are the main restraining factor, at least for today. And so I will repeat what I said a week ago: the nuclear threat is currently minimal,” – Denisenko wrote on his Facebook page.
He also notes that the issue of freezing the conflict may become part of global agreements with the participation of the United States.
“Trump will try to resolve the issue of freezing the conflict in Ukraine before his inauguration (the probability that this will be successful is still not high, but the situation changes almost every day). We can already say that our issue will be resolved as part of Trump’s big deals on the whole In the same way, we can say that Putin will delay real negotiations until he understands that the front line has stabilized. But, I am sure not negotiations, and the exchange of views at a lower level has already begun.” – the expert believes.
