“The Web will not be a turning point in the course of events on the front”: Oleksandr Kochetkov on the consequences of the high-profile operation

Operation Web, in which military airfields in the deep rear of Russia were attacked, has become one of the loudest events of recent weeks. It caused a wide resonance both among Ukrainian society and at the international level, especially given its symbolic synchronicity with the start of negotiations in Istanbul. However, as noted by political analyst Oleksandr Kochetkov, despite its effectiveness, this sabotage operation should be evaluated with professional sobriety.

Kochetkov admitted, that the operation itself is truly outstanding in terms of coordination, planning and execution. He emphasized that such precise coordination of the actions of several independent groups, located far from each other and from Ukrainian territory, without open interference and with the use of complex equipment, is an unprecedented example of a modern special operation. The fact that the attack was carried out on the eve of the negotiations in Turkey, which definitely affected the tone of these meetings, is especially impressive, he said.

At the same time, the analyst warned against exaggeration in interpreting the significance of this operation from a military point of view. He noted that the nuclear forces of the Russian Federation were not hit. In his opinion, the aircraft that were hit can formally be considered an element of the nuclear triad, but in fact are not its core. Kochetkov emphasized that the real basis of the nuclear forces of the Russian Federation are land- and sea-based medium- and long-range missiles. And the destroyed planes are outdated strategic bombers, which, according to him, were rather instrumental in delivering cruise missile strikes on peaceful cities of Ukraine.

According to the expert, during the operation, a significant number of means of terrorist activities, and not elements of strategic deterrence, were destroyed. He believes that these aircraft were a practical tool of terror, not a systemic component of nuclear security, so their destruction does not pose a risk to the global strategic balance.

Kochetkov also emphasized that it is not necessary to overestimate the value of the losses suffered by the Russian side. He noted that these planes are morally obsolete, lagging behind modern models by several technological generations, and, according to him, they will not be restored, as there is no technical or economic sense. He also drew attention to the fact that recently Russia has significantly reduced the use of cruise missiles, which are launched precisely from strategic bombers. Kochetkov explained this by the fact that Ukrainian air defense systems, reinforced with NATO technologies, effectively destroy almost all such missiles.

According to the expert, the greatest damage to Russia will not be caused by the loss of aircraft, but by its own reaction to this operation. Kochetkov believes that after “The Web” the Russian services will start massively checking vehicles throughout the country, in particular trucks, which will cause the collapse of logistics and the disorganization of internal supply.

At the same time, the analyst reminded that Russia will continue to focus not on airstrikes, but on the gradual seizure of Ukrainian territory by infantry. He emphasized that it is the enemy’s creeping offensive that remains the main danger, which Ukraine has not yet been able to completely stop or neutralize.

Kochetkov believes that the special operation is brilliant precisely from a psychological and propaganda point of view. According to him, it hits the most painful place — “Russia’s imperial pride,” “the myth of its invincibility and self-presentation as a superpower capable of dictating the rules of war.” The analyst emphasized that striking a symbol, which is distant airfields with so-called “strategists”, not only humiliates the enemy – it publicly demonstrates his vulnerability.

He recalled that the prerequisite for “The Web” was another similar action in March 2023, when a small FPV drone simulated an attack on a Russian A-50 aircraft at the airfield in Machulyshchy, Belarus. Kochetkov noted that it was from this technologically simple, but psychologically powerful operation that the escalation of the use of drones as a tool of strategic pressure began.

In conclusion, the analyst emphasized that despite its effectiveness and symbolic power, “The Web” will not be a turning point in the course of events at the front. He believes that the front will remain complex and exhausting, and that radical change will depend not on isolated diversions but on systemic changes in supply, command and strategic planning.

Oleksandr Kochetkov urges to maintain sobriety in the perception of events: while recognizing the significance of “The Web” as a model of modern warfare of a new type, one should not attribute to it properties that it does not have. This is an important episode, but not decisive in a long and difficult war.

“This special operation will not radically affect the course of events at the front”, – summarized the expert.