The International Monetary Fund revised its assessment of economic risks for Ukraine and concluded that the duration of the war may be longer than previously predicted. In this regard, a significant increase in the needs for financing the state budget is expected already in 2026. About this stated head of the IMF mission, Gavin Gray.
According to Gray, if the full-scale war continues in 2026, the deficit of public finances may reach 800 billion hryvnias. This means that Ukraine will need additional sources of foreign aid, which will cover the urgent needs of the budget in the conditions of hostilities and maintaining high defense costs.
The Government of Ukraine has already taken these risks into account in its budget planning and laid down two main scenarios in the Budget Declaration for 2026-2028: the end of the war in 2025 or its continuation for at least another year. In the second option, spending on the security and defense sector should increase by an additional 750-800 billion hryvnias. If the security situation improves, these costs are forecast at the level of 1.8 trillion hryvnias.
The IMF emphasizes that the key condition for ensuring the financial stability of Ukraine is the clarity of budget planning and early detailing of needs for 2026. This will allow international donors and partners to form long-term aid programs.
Gavin Gray separately emphasized that in a situation of protracted conflict, the most expedient form of support remains grants and soft loans — they can provide a balance between Ukraine’s needs and fiscal constraints. The European Commission, for its part, has already announced a proposal for a financial support program until 2028.
Analysts following the negotiations point out that the transparency and predictability of the financial policy of the Ukrainian government are critical for maintaining the trust of partners. The financial stability of the state in 2026 and beyond depends on the coherence between budget logic and international aid.
