Over the past few weeks, unbearable heat has covered Ukraine, not only worsening the quality of life of Ukrainians and increasing the consumption of electricity, but also significantly damaging crops. Experts predict a decrease in the yield of late cereals, since the peak of heat and drought fell on the period of their flowering, as well as vegetables and vegetables.
However, there is a reason for optimism – in the fact that there is no threat to domestic consumption and food security of the country. On the other hand, the decrease in the harvest may affect the export of products of Ukrainian farmers.
Corn, soybean and sunflower crops were the most affected
Over the past month, the air temperature has reached an absolute maximum recorded in the entire history of observations in Ukraine. Each subsequent hot day worsens the forecasts of experts regarding the future harvest.
By the way, one of the few benefits of such dry weather is that the campaign for harvesting early grains and legumes, which takes place in the heat, has a good effect on the quality of the grain. Unlike “rainy” harvest, it does not require additional drying.
On the other hand, due to the heat, harvesting began earlier than planned, because the ripening of the plants accelerated, and the grains did not have time to take effect.
Thus, according to the forecasts of experts of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the yield of barley and wheat in the southern regions of Ukraine will suffer due to the heat. At the same time, the volume of the expected harvest collected in the northern, western and central regions will be almost unaffected by the heat, and in some places will even exceed last year’s figures.
“In some regions, unfortunately, there is really a record drought, so we have lower indicators. But in the western and central regions, the indicators are even better than last year. Therefore, so far, the forecast is for a 5-7% lower harvest than the previous year, which taking into account of all the challenges that the war continues to bring is a good result.” – commented on the situation acting Minister T. Vysotskyi.
Farmers are currently harvesting wheat and barley, as well as oats, peas, rye and rapeseed. The average yield of early cereals is 37 quintals per hectare. It can be hoped that with the intensification of the harvest in the western and northern regions, this indicator will increase. Experts assess the impact of the unprecedented heat on the crops of these crops as moderate.
In order for the cobs to be tied, precipitation is critically needed
Corn is the most vulnerable to drought. It is very appropriate that the heat has finally subsided in recent days, but in order for the cobs to set, precipitation is critically needed. “Hot weather leads to sterilization of pollen, lack of pollination of plants, formation of cobs in cobs, which will lead to a decrease in yield.” – agrometeorologists comment on the situation.
For the sunflower crop, critically high temperatures are also undesirable, there is a chance that part of the crop will burn, and the surviving grain will be small. The specialists of the Hydrometeorological Center emphasize that plants are wilting in many areas, and in places in the south – drying and complete death of sunflowers due to drought.
In general, according to forecasts According to the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, this year’s abnormal weather conditions will, first of all, negatively affect the future harvest of corn and sunflower, as was the case in 2020, when the harvest was reduced by a third.
“Reserves of productive moisture are currently extremely low. Despite the fact that the temperature is forecast to decrease, the lack of precipitation will negatively affect the development of these agricultural crops. At the moment, in particular, corn is beginning to bloom, the basis of yield is being laid. And without precipitation, the situation can be quite critical. Unfortunately, there may be a repeat of 2020 and a reduction in productivity by 30-35%,” the experts warned.
Territories irrigated by rainfall (western, sometimes northern, central and eastern regions) faced other problems – local crop failure, damage to plants by hail, spread of fungal diseases. After all, high humidity at high temperatures is a very favorable environment for the reproduction of pests, including spider mites, which destroy soybean crops.
As for the forecast for the buckwheat harvest, it is generally favorable. Although in some places in the central and eastern regions, experts recorded the drying of buckwheat flowers and wilting of plants. The condition of the millet crops is, for the most part, satisfactory.
Forecasts of grain and oil crops harvest
Despite the climatic cataclysms, experts forecast the harvest of grain and oil crops in the range of 75-77 million tons. This is 5-7 million tons less than last year – 82 million tons – but it is also a good indicator.
According to experts of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, grain and leguminous farmers will harvest 55-56 million tons this year. (of which, according to the optimistic scenario, up to 36 million tons are corn, 21 million tons are oil crops, mainly sunflower). At the same time, the domestic average annual consumption of grain and oilseeds is up to 15-16 million tons. The rest – about 60 million tons – volumes of potential export.
At the same time, specialized departments and experts do not attempt to predict whether the price situation on world markets will be favorable for the earnings of Ukrainian farmers.
Tatyana Morarash
