Why Ukrainian refugees decide to stay abroad: Tymofiy Brik on the conditions for returning to Ukraine

The issue of the return of Ukrainian refugees to Ukraine remains one of the most important and most discussed in the conditions of the ongoing war. Millions of Ukrainians, who were forced to leave abroad in search of safety, faced a difficult choice: return home or continue life in another country, waiting for the stabilization of the situation in Ukraine. Many are ready to return to their homes, but for this certain conditions must be created, among which safety, economic prospects and access to normal living conditions are key.

Lack of security guarantees, instability in the labor market, social and economic uncertainty — all these factors influence the decision of Ukrainian refugees to return. Most of them pay attention not only to their own wishes, but also to the needs of the family, in particular, to the future of their children. While some European countries are beginning to cut social assistance for refugees, the issue of returning to Ukraine is becoming increasingly urgent. However, in order for this decision to be justified, it is necessary to provide basic conditions that will allow Ukrainians to feel stability and confidence in the future.

The important issue of the return of Ukrainian refugees to Ukraine depends on several key factors, the main of which are security, stable prospects for a normal life, as well as employment opportunities. Sociologist and rector of “Kyiv School of Economics” University Tymofiy Brik expressed the opinion that precisely these factors have a decisive influence on the decision of Ukrainians to return.

The main factors affecting returns

According to the expert’s opinion, the most important condition for refugees to start returning to Ukraine again is security. While hostilities continue in Ukraine, many people are not ready to risk the safety of themselves and their loved ones, especially children. Those who are planning their return, first of all, hope for stability and protection from new threats, because the quality and stability of their future depends on this.

A second key factor is the prospects for a normal life, including the ability to find work and pursue professional ambitions. During their stay abroad, many refugees have already adapted to new conditions, gained experience and got used to living standards that provide them with stable incomes and prospects. For many Ukrainians, it is important that returning home does not lead to the loss of these achievements and that they have the opportunity to apply the acquired skills in the Ukrainian labor market.

“We know from research that Ukrainians would be ready to return. At the beginning of the invasion, 70-80% said so. Then there were 50-60%, now it’s 30-40%. But people still articulate that they could return.

This is influenced by several factors — security, the ability to find work, and a sense of national identity, which reinforces the first two. If this is not the case, it may discourage you from returning. But there are also things that push Ukrainians away from, for example, Poland or Germany — many of them with high society, high social status, who are used to working, perhaps, in international corporations or in management positions, feel awkward in countries if cannot realize themselves there.

Also, people often care not only about themselves, but also about their family. Children, elderly parents. We want to give them good medicine, a good kindergarten or school. When they are sure: the children are already studying at the university, they may want to return. Or, for example, they will say: “Oh, I feel safe in the west of Ukraine, there is a Ukrainian Catholic University there, it is not bad, my children can study there, so I will return”, – notes the expert.

He also expressed his opinion on the relationship between the state and Ukrainians:

“There are two points. The first: we focused on the state, we only talk about it. But there is also a business that is proactively included in the history of supporting or rebuilding Ukraine. We have huge companies like Nova Poshta, for example, which has a large number of employees. They are responsible for military families, for forced migrants. There are businesses that, for the sake of development, are ready to open jobs and invest in retraining.

If we talk about the state, it would be nice if it acted as an arbiter. Because there will still be benefits. I understand that there will be a risk of dissatisfaction and polarization, but still certain groups of the population will be stimulated. The question will be about communication – how to explain why someone has benefits, someone does not, or someone more, someone less.”

National identity also plays an important role in the decision to return, but its significance depends on the specific situation of each family. Tymofiy Brik notes that many refugees, considering the possibility of return, take into account not only their personal wishes, but also the interests of loved ones, in particular children. Parents usually want to provide their children with a safe and stable future. If conditions in Ukraine continue to be unstable, refugees will prefer to stay abroad, where children will have access to quality education and a safe environment.

Will a decline in the level of hospitality in receiving countries affect the decision to return

The expert also examines the issue of hospitality in countries that have accepted Ukrainian refugees. Although some countries are gradually reducing the level of aid and social benefits for refugees, Brik believes that this is not a decisive factor for return. If a person feels a decrease in support in one country, he can try to move to another that will provide better conditions, rather than risking a return to unstable Ukraine. For example, if aid is cut in Germany, Ukrainian refugees may consider moving to Canada, Italy, or the United States.

“The president expects that Ukrainians will return more actively when the ability of the countries that received them to support them decreases.

If a person’s economic incentive disappears, he has to do something. But it is not a fact that she will return to Ukraine. This person may think: it didn’t work out in Germany, I’ll try Italy, Canada, the USA. Those who want to return to Ukraine will do so if they feel safe and have the opportunity to get a job.

Of course, the government cannot be responsible for Putin and the Russians. The feeling of danger will remain for a long time. But the government can offer benefits, support educational programs. Let’s say if we can build high-quality kindergartens, schools, and universities in western Ukraine, launch programs with housing support, some Ukrainians will feel that they have a reason to return.” – emphasized Brick.

Thus, according to the sociologist, those who decide to return to Ukraine will do so only when the necessary conditions are created in Ukraine — stability, security and opportunities for professional realization.

Prospects for the integration of Ukrainian refugees in European countries

Ukrainian refugees, staying in European countries, face various challenges related to long-term integration. In some countries, such as France, in order to obtain citizenship, Ukrainians need to submit their documents for a long period of time, which limits the possibility of a temporary return to Ukraine. There is also a widespread opinion among Ukrainians in Poland that local residents consider them as temporary guests and are somewhat suspicious of their desire to stay and integrate.

This issue is important for shaping return decisions. If refugees face obstacles to integration, it will be more difficult for them to decide to stay in this country, but many of them may still choose another country for their future life, rather than return to Ukraine.

So, according to Tymofiy Bryk, the issue of the return of Ukrainian refugees depends on many factors, and the main ones are security, economic opportunities and stability of living conditions in Ukraine. If Ukraine can provide these factors, the percentage of those who will return will increase. However, if these conditions are not met, many refugees will remain abroad, perhaps in another country that offers them more prospects.