300% error: the National Bank explained why inflation forecasts differ significantly from reality
Head of the NBU Andriy Pyshny noted that the forecast is updated at least four times a year.
Inflation forecasts published by the National Bank should not be taken as assurances and something immutable. At the same time, Ukraine is currently living in conditions of great uncertainty, which affects these forecasts and may make them inaccurate. About this stated head of the NBU Andriy Pishnyi.
In particular, he commented on the rumors regarding the inconsistency of the regulator’s forecasts with the real situation, which was pointed out by People’s Deputy from “Servant of the People” Oleksandr Sova. He claims that in 2023 “in the official forecast, the National Bank was wrong by 300%.” And only for the first half of the current year by 160%.
“And all this affects both the discount rate and the costs forecast by the Ministry of Finance. When the state budget is approved”, – the people’s representative pointed out the essence of the problem.
Answering this, Pyshnyi emphasized that the forecast is updated at least four times a year. In addition, the data in it “were never assurances, it is something carved in stone.”
The head of the National Bank added that it is very difficult to make any forecasts regarding the economic situation in the country in general, since Ukraine functions “under conditions of absolute and zero-interest uncertainty.”
“This is a perfect storm, when a combination of negative circumstances and factors converged at one point in time and formed a dramatic effect of a completely unpredictable action. Because of this, uncertainty affects all forecasts.”, – emphasized the head of the National Bank.
It is worth recalling that in January 2023, the NBU published a forecast according to which the inflation rate by the end of the year will be 18.7%, but the actual inflation was 5.1%.
