After temporary protection: how Europe and Canada are changing the conditions of stay of Ukrainian refugees
The issue of the further stay of Ukrainians abroad has entered a new stage, as the European Union has already announced a benchmark after which the current mechanism of temporary protection may cease to operate. At the same time, Canada, on the contrary, has extended the opportunities for those who arrived under a special program after the start of a full-scale war.
What is known about the preparation of decisions in the European Union
After March 2027, the EU countries, according to preliminary plans, are not going to maintain the current format of temporary protection for Ukrainians in its current form. This means that citizens of Ukraine will be able to remain on the territory of European states under other legal mechanisms, in particular through national visas or other methods of legalization. The final approach is still being prepared, and the preliminary version should be presented in May.
In June 2025, the European Union announced that the extension of temporary protection after March 4, 2027 is not planned. Therefore, for Ukrainians who will be in the EU countries after this date, the question of transition to another type of legal status will arise, which will be regulated not by the emergency mechanism introduced after the Russian invasion, but by the internal rules of individual states.
A new stage of discussion took place on March 5 this year during a meeting of the ministers of justice and home affairs of the 27 EU member states. At this summit, it was recognized that countries need additional time to prepare by March 2027, since the end of the temporary protection without a transitional plan would create large-scale legal and social difficulties. At that time, the European Commissioner for Home Affairs and Migration, Magnus Brunner, announced that the EU’s approach to Ukrainian refugees would change.
At the end of March, the European Commission began working on a proposal to change the rules for temporary protection for Ukrainian citizens. According to available information, the finished version should be presented in May, after which it will become clearer by what criteria the further status of Ukrainians in the Union countries will be determined.
What options are being discussed in the EU for Ukrainians after the end of temporary protection
Currently, the focus of the discussion is on the question of the grounds on which Ukrainians will be able to continue to remain in the EU after March 4, 2027. One of the basic scenarios assumes that people will have to formalize their stay through national legalization mechanisms, in particular through visa procedures, residence permits or other instruments provided for by the legislation of a particular state.
In addition to a general change in status, the possibility of a differentiated approach to different categories of Ukrainian citizens is also being discussed. EU Special Representative Ylva Johansson suggested that temporary protection could be extended for certain groups if the European Union supports this option. Among the criteria that could potentially be taken into account are the person’s place of residence in Ukraine and his connection with mobilization.
In addition, the topic of Ukrainian men occupies a separate place in these discussions, as some countries insist on additional restrictions in future rules. At the same time, Ylva Johansson explained that men have the same right to protection, and the issue of their return to Ukraine is the competence of Kyiv. Despite this, a number of states advocate stricter conditions specifically for male citizens of Ukraine.
The preparation of the final version may be influenced by decisions that have already been made by individual European countries. In Switzerland, asylum is not granted to Ukrainians arriving from the western regions of Ukraine, based on the approach that considers these territories to be less dangerous for residence. In Norway, the possibility of obtaining collective protection for Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 has been limited.
Such steps show that in European capitals, the transition from a universal model to a system where a person’s individual circumstances will be more important is being increasingly discussed. For Ukrainians, this means that future rules may depend not only on the fact of citizenship, but also on the region of residence in Ukraine, family status, age and other criteria that have yet to be determined at the EU level.
What the Canadian government has decided
Amidst discussions in the European Union, the Canadian government has extended the Emergency Travel Authorization (CUAET), which allows Ukrainians to work and reside in the country. This mechanism allows Ukrainian citizens who have used it after the start of a full-scale war to reside and work in the country.
Canadian Immigration Minister Lena Metledge Diab stressed that due to Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, Canadian authorities continue to support forcibly displaced Ukrainians and maintain the opportunity for them to work and participate in the country’s economic life. The ministry clarified that Ukrainians who arrived in Canada under the CUAET program before March 31, 2024, can apply for a three-year extension of their residence and work permit until March 31, 2027.
The CUAET program was introduced in early March 2022 as a special temporary mechanism for citizens of Ukraine. Although the acceptance of new applications ended three years ago, more than 298 thousand Ukrainian asylum seekers have arrived in Canada during this time. The exact number of those who are still in the country remains unknown, since there are no statistics on departures.
Last month, a petition was submitted to the Canadian Parliament with a proposal to grant permanent resident status to all Ukrainian asylum seekers who arrived after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion. So far, it is only a public initiative, but its appearance shows that the topic of the future of Ukrainians in Canada is also moving from the plane of temporary solutions to a conversation about long-term status.
As a result, the situation for Ukrainians in the EU and Canada is developing according to different scenarios. The European Union is preparing to review the model of temporary protection after March 2027 and is looking for new legal grounds for the stay of Ukrainian citizens. At the same time, Canada has already extended the opportunities for those who managed to arrive under the CUAET program, and thus has defined clearer time limits for further registration of status.
