According to DeepState analysts, after 3 years and 8 months of full-scale war, Russian troops have established control over approximately 23% of the territory of the Donetsk region. At the same time, 22.6% of the region is currently under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
As DeepState notes, despite constant and active changes on the front line, the overall dynamics of capturing the entire region remains slow. Even before the start of the full-scale invasion, pro-Russian militants controlled about 32% of the Donetsk region. In the first 40 days after February 24, 2022, as a result of the breakthrough of defenses in the southern direction and the encirclement of Mariupol, Russian troops were able to capture an additional approximately 22.4% of the region.
Furthermore, the pace of the Russian army’s advance decreased significantly. The Ukrainian Defense Forces were able to stabilize the front on the section from Velyka Novosilka to Vugledar, while Russian units suffered significant losses during assault operations in the Donetsk fortified area.
Analysts also indicate that at the current intensity of hostilities and the pace of advance, it will take at least another three years for Russia to fully occupy the Donetsk region. DeepState draws attention to a historical comparison: during a similar period of time, Nazi Germany during World War II was able to advance from the Western Bug to Moscow and Stalingrad, while the Russian army only advanced from Donetsk to Pokrovsk in almost the same period.
