Business expectations of Ukrainian businesses in July 2025 worsened again. The index of expectations of business activity, which is calculated monthly by the National Bank of Ukraine, fell to 48.3 points — below the neutral mark of 50 points, which indicates that business is returning to the zone of pessimism. This is the second month in a row that business sentiment has shown negative dynamics after a temporary improvement in May, when the index reached 50.8 points. About this informs NBU.
The National Bank explained that the change in sentiment was influenced by a complex of internal and external factors. Among the key reasons was the increase in Russian shelling of critical infrastructure, which caused significant material damage and increased anxiety in the business environment. In addition, enterprises report a rapid increase in production costs — in particular, for raw materials, fuel, and labor costs. Another important factor is the shortage of qualified workers, which has become especially acute against the background of the general mobilization situation and labor migration.
The deterioration of the index is observed against the background of ongoing inflationary processes, which complicate the planning of expenses and income, forcing enterprises to reduce activity and postpone investment decisions. Nevertheless, certain factors mitigated the decline somewhat: in particular, the relatively stable situation in the energy sector, the seasonal revival of consumer demand and the preservation of activity in the retail trade.
As evidenced by the distribution of the index by sector, moods in different sectors of the economy remain heterogeneous. Thus, trade and construction were able to stay above the neutral level — at the level of 51.2 and 50.6 points, respectively, which is explained by stable domestic demand. At the same time, industry showed a return to pessimistic estimates — the index fell to 48.6 points due to rising production costs, risks of attacks and disruptions in logistics. The worst expectations are recorded in the service sector — only 45.8 points, which reflects the deep vulnerability of this segment to economic and social instability.
The majority of surveyed enterprises report an expected increase in purchase prices and prices for their own products. At the same time, the business signals a further reduction in the number of employees in all sectors. This indicates difficulties with staff retention, insufficient resources and a reorientation to survival in conditions of growing economic stress.
