By the end of 2025, the State Statistics Service plans to estimate the population of Ukraine

The State Statistics Service plans to estimate the population of Ukraine by the end of 2025. Such an assessment will not replace the census, but it will be the best possible option in the current conditions, stated Head of the State Statistics Service Arsen Makarchuk.

“We found ourselves in a situation where we do not know how many people live in the country. And we have to look for other approaches for calculating the population. We have to carry out this assessment de facto from scratch, when there is no single reliable source that can provide us with data for assessment, Arsen Makarchuk noted.

He reminded that until 2022, the State Statistics Service determined the population size, based on the 2001 census and adding data on natural and migration movements: how many people were born, how many died, how many left or arrived. According to him, after the start of a full-scale war, the classical methodology is unusable, since an information gap has formed since 2022 that cannot be filled.

“This especially applies to going abroad, because for some time documents were checked, but data was not entered into the database. This, unfortunately, is an objective fact, added the head of the service.

At the same time, he emphasized that there are other data that can be used in the complex for such an assessment:

“All these data by themselves do not say anything, but if we build a model that will help us bring them all together in one point, check each other and arrive at a certain figure, we will be able to make a reasonable guess about the population of Ukraine. It will not replace the census, but it will be the best that is currently possible. It seems to me that we have all the possibilities to do it even in war conditions.

Makarchuk explained that for this purpose it is possible to use the data of state registers, which were significantly improved during the war, although they do not show the real place of residence of a person. In addition, data from mobile operators can be used, although it is also not ideal: people often use several operators, and it is not always possible to accurately determine the place of residence of a subscriber. Makarchuk added that it is also possible to use bank data, observing bank secrecy, because financial institutions record customer transactions in the POS network and their requests to the branch.

“Plus, there are, for example, statistical data on the amount of food consumed in a certain area, which can be used to make certain assumptions about the number of people living there”, – the head of the State Statistics Service gave an example.

He emphasized that the request to estimate the population is one of the most massive — it is sent by authorities, local self-government, businesses and citizens.

“We have three main indicators that are of interest to everyone: GDP, inflation and population size and its sex-age composition”, Makarchuk stated.