Exit permit for men aged 18-22 has no noticeable impact on the labor market: National Bank report
The National Bank of Ukraine reported that the permission to leave for men aged 18 to 22 currently has no noticeable impact on the situation on the labor market. This is reported in the regulator’s October inflation report.
“The ability for men aged 18 to 22 to cross the border has not had a noticeable impact on the labor market so far. In general, according to the Institute of Demography, there are about 840,000 men aged 18-22 in Ukraine, but most of them are students. About 300,000 men of this group are employed on the labor market (i.e. about 2% of the total labor force). At the same time, according to company surveys, about half of employers have felt the impact of the exodus, but are already replacing this group with other categories of workers, the report notes.
In the first nine months of 2025, the number of migrants continued to grow, although much more slowly than last year – by 166,000 people compared to 390,000 in January-September 2024, which corresponds to the NBU’s July forecast. According to the UN, as of October 3, 2025, 5.8 million people were outside Ukraine.
The National Bank predicts that the net outflow of the population will continue at least until 2026 – approximately 200,000 people per year. Starting from 2027, a gradual return of migrants is expected – about 100,000 people each year.
The regulator notes that due to the slow pace of return of labor migrants, a labor shortage will persist in Ukraine. This will contribute to the growth of real wages and a decrease in the unemployment rate (to about 9% at the end of the forecast period), but at the same time will limit the possibilities for expanding production.
