Fitch rating agency confirmed the status of Ukraine at the level of “Restricted Default” (limited default) regarding debt obligations in foreign currency. For obligations in the national currency, the rating remained at the level of “CCC+”, which indicates a very high risk.
Fitch’s decision indicated that the reason for this level is the ongoing restructuring of Ukraine’s foreign debt. Despite Ukrenergo’s agreement with bondholders to restructure the 2021 green bonds in the amount of $825 million, a number of other obligations, including GDP warrants ($2.6 billion) and the Cargill loan ($0.7 billion), remain unchanged.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to service its debt in hryvnias, which allows it to maintain a higher rating for domestic liabilities. According to Fitch, as of May 2025, only 1.1% of domestic hryvnia debt belongs to foreign investors. The main creditors remain the National Bank and mostly state-owned commercial banks.
The agency predicts growth in domestic borrowing, especially in 2026. This trend is associated with a probable reduction in the volume of external financial assistance. If Ukraine expects to receive a record $55 billion in external financing in 2025 (compared to an average of $25 billion in 2022-2024), aid may decrease and become less stable in the future.
At the same time, the current year is characterized by moderate amounts of internal financing, which leaves room for its increase in the future.
