From 2025, tariffs for communal services will begin to rise in Ukraine: NBU forecast
Next year, tariffs will begin to gradually change to economically justified levels.
The National Bank of Ukraine predicts that gas, heating and hot water tariffs will remain unchanged throughout 2024. However, given the difficult situation in the energy sector and the state budget, it is expected that the tariffs will be adjusted in the coming years. About this it is said in the NBU inflation report.
“From 2025, the gradual reduction of tariffs to their economically reasonable levels will begin”, – stated in the forecast.
The report emphasizes that uncertainty regarding the timing and scope of tariff adjustments, especially energy tariffs, is a significant risk for the inflation forecast. A significant increase in the cost of energy carriers, necessary to quickly eliminate imbalances in the energy sector, will create additional inflationary pressure and require a significant increase in subsidies for the population.
At the same time, the long-term postponement of decisions on bringing tariffs for housing and communal services to economically reasonable levels may lead to a lower level of inflation. However, this will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state energy companies.
According to the NBU, such postponements increase the risks of instability in the energy market, reduce the industry’s investment potential and push price pressure into the future.
“The moratorium on raising individual tariffs for housing and communal services services for the population will restrain the growth of administrative prices for some time. However, the gradual bringing of these tariffs to market levels, which, according to forecasts, will begin in 2025, will become a significant pro-inflationary factor in 2025-2026.”, the report says.
The National Bank emphasizes the importance of timely adjustment of tariffs to maintain the stability of the energy sector and ensure sustainable economic development.
