The world of gambling has always been full of diverse and often controversial practices, but in recent years a new phenomenon has emerged that is causing particular interest and discussion – bookmakers betting on wars. This practice, which may seem shocking at first glance, allows people to make predictions about the results of military conflicts and other global disasters, as well as the possibility of using nuclear weapons. Bets can cover various aspects, such as the duration of the conflict, the victory of one side or the other, the change of political leadership and even the probability of intervention by other countries.
Despite the fact that betting on sports events and political elections has already become commonplace for many, betting on wars is still a fairly new topic and raises big moral and ethical questions. Is it moral to profit from tragic events that lead to the loss of human lives and the destruction of entire countries? This issue deserves serious attention as the popularity of betting on wars continues to grow, especially in countries with liberal gambling laws.
How bookmakers make bets on wars
Throughout history, people have always fought with each other, finding various reasons for this. However, each time such actions were met with resistance from society, and their consequences had a serious impact on the surrounding world. Now we are also witnessing military conflicts in our country and in various parts of the planet, which are most often caused by the desire to seize territories, economic instability, different ideologies, the struggle for power and the desire to prove one’s superiority in the world.
Bookmaking companies decided not to stay away from such events, finding in them a cynical opportunity to make money. Sports betting was not enough for them to remain competitive in the market. Therefore, bookmakers began to expand their lines, first adding bets on presidential elections, and later – on real international conflicts. War betting is a type of gambling where participants make predictions on the outcome of military conflicts. Such bets can be related to various aspects, including the duration of the war, the victory of one side or the other, geopolitical changes, etc. Bookmakers also offer the public to place bets on questions that concern them – whether the third world war will be declared, how the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved, what role NATO will play in this, etc. These topics are of great interest, so bookmakers actively set the appropriate odds. At the same time, bets on the war try to rely on the forecasts of military experts, schedules for the delivery of weapons, stages of attracting partners, victories at the front and other indicators. However, none of them can give a hundred percent guarantee for the advantage of one side or another.
However, according to representatives of bookmakers, such bets are not made en masse. This is due to the difficulty of making accurate forecasts for such events, because even based on the analysis of information sites, it is difficult to fully understand the plans of the leaders of military conflicts and predict their outcome in the near future. Therefore, such bets on a long-term perspective lead only to losses. However, they are a kind of publicity stunt and an attempt to attract more players who are more interested in politics than sports, in order to increase the bookies’ own profits. In business, even negative PR is considered useful because it helps to stay ahead of the competition. But since this topic is very sensitive, many countries have decided to ban such bets at the state level. And although bets on political events can still be found in the USA or Europe, bets on military conflicts are not accepted by Ukrainian, Russian and some European bookmakers. Instead, a number of world bookmakers do not neglect this topic and still set odds on military events taking place in Ukraine. These include Metaculus, Smarkets, Paddy Power and many others.
Geography of betting on wars
Great Britain
In Great Britain, the activities of bookmakers are regulated by the UK Gambling Commission. Thanks to this, bookmakers can legally offer bets on various international events, including military conflicts. For example, during the Syrian civil war and the war in Ukraine, users place bets on various aspects of the conflicts. Such bets include predicting the duration of the conflict, the probability of victory for one side or the other, or even potential changes in political leadership.
For example, ahead of 2022, the British magazine The Economist, which likes to make various predictions, used data from betting exchanges Betfair, Metaculus, PredictIt and Smarkets to get an idea of future events.
“The wisdom of the crowd beats the crystal ball for predictions”, – the publication explained.
Each forecast then had its own probability of events, according to which 43% of the British people bet that the Russian Federation would invade Ukraine, and 10% – that a military conflict between China and Taiwan would begin.
Well-known British betting companies Bet365 and William Hill also offer bets on the outcome of military conflicts. So, during the Syrian civil war, users could bet on when the conflict would end and who would be its winner. Similar rates are offered for the war in Ukraine.
USA
In the USA, before the adoption of the law in 2006, which strengthens control over online betting, betting on the outcome of military conflicts was not prohibited. For example, in 2003, Americans bet on whether there would be a war between the United States and Iraq, and when it might start. In the American online casino BetonSports.com, 4,400 bets were placed for a total amount of about $250,000, and on the website Tradesports.com — 3,000 bets for the amount of approximately $620,000.
Today, even online exchanges registered in the USA, such as Polymarket or Predictit, have problems with state regulators. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has already fined Polymarket $1.4 million, and now it has taken on the popular online platform Predictit, where users can bet on the outcome of political events in America. However, in the country, some platforms still specialize in political forecasts and allow betting on international events, including military conflicts. These platforms operate within legal loopholes that allow users to bet on political and military events. For example, PredictIt specializes in political predictions and allows betting on international events, including military conflicts. At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, bets were made here on whether the war would last more than a year, or whether there would be a change of government in Ukraine as a result of the conflict.
What wars were bet on?
During the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, many bookmakers offered bets on various aspects of the conflict – when the conflict would end, whether the Syrian government would change, or whether other countries would intervene in the conflict. During the Iraq War, especially in 2003, bookmakers accepted bets on various outcomes, such as the length of the conflict, the fate of Saddam Hussein, and even the future political leadership of Iraq.
Given the protracted nature of the Afghan war, bookmakers also offered a variety of bets on different aspects of this conflict. Bets included predictions about the date of withdrawal of US and Soviet troops, the likelihood of the Taliban regaining control of the country, or the level of violence in various regions of Afghanistan.
However, one of the most famous bets on the war was made in 2011, when the British betting company Ladbrokes accepted bets on the probability of military intervention by NATO in Libya, the duration of the conflict, the fate of Muammar Gaddafi. This conflict became one of the most notable examples of the use of military conflicts for gambling.
Bets on the war in Ukraine
In Ukraine, this practice is not widespread due to strict restrictions on gambling and moral and ethical issues. The legislation of Ukraine strictly regulates activities in the field of gambling, and betting on military conflicts is not included in the list of permitted activities. However, with the development of the Internet, some international platforms may be available to Ukrainian players, although this is in the “gray zone” of the legislation. At the same time, it is difficult to determine whether many Ukrainians make similar bets.
A well-known decentralized crypto bookmaker (prediction platform) Polymarket opened the reception of bets on the escalation of the conflict between Israel and the terrorist organization Hamas. He also accepts bets on the development of the war in Ukraine. In particular, it is proposed to bet on whether Ukraine will break the land bridge between Crimea and Russia by November 1. The coefficient is 6.09.
Another topic of interest is the possibility of using nuclear weapons. At the same time, the crypto bookmaker forms a coefficient based on the mood of customers. Therefore, a bet of $100 on a nuclear strike would yield a payout of $1,911. The same amount placed on the other option (that nuclear weapons will not be used) will give $104. In 2024, members of the crypto platform Polymarket bet $200 million on the outcome of the US elections, despite the ban on using this platform. In addition, it is known that in mid-June 2024, the Taiwan Prosecutor’s Office fined a Polymarket user for placing bets on the country’s elections.
Exotic markets
In addition to political events and wars, bookmakers line up an exotic market, for example, Cristiano Ronaldo’s tears at the World Cup. In addition, during the 2014 World Cup in football, English bookmakers offered to bet on the presence of doping in any participant of the tournament with a coefficient of 6.00. Also, many football fans remember the trick of the Colombian goalkeeper, when he kicked the ball flying behind him. In the offices, you could bet that such a trick would happen again at the World Cup 2014 with odds of 66.00.
In 2004, Paddy Power accepted bets on the new receiver of the Pope, although it was necessary to wait for his death to win a bet. In 2011, bookmakers accepted bets on the gender and name of the Beckhams’ future child.
In 2012, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power accepted bets on the future boyfriend of English model Katie Price, which included famous footballers Jermain Defoe (10.00) and Ashley Cole (18.00) and even Prince Harry (100.00). These are just some of the exotic bets that bookmakers have offered to players in past years. Currently, many western offices accept this kind of bets.
Bookmakers themselves do not perceive exotic markets as something essential and do not seek to get rich with their help. This is just a populist measure that contributes to the frequent mention of the bookmaker’s name in the press. Bets on such markets can be made only for entertainment, but there is no monetary return from them.
But let’s return to the topic of wars. Bookmakers draw the attention of bettors to betting on wars in order to expand the audience of their supporters. The full-scale war in Ukraine became a global event and attracted the attention of many people. Some bookmakers decided to take advantage of this, so to speak, to be in the center of events, and to expand their own lines by adding bets on the war in Ukraine to their list. From the point of view of business, such steps bear fruit, but they should also be evaluated from the point of view of morality. In fact, this is PR, black advertising, speculation against the background of human sacrifice. Sometimes everything reaches a particularly cynicism, when bookmakers place bets on how many soldiers and civilians will be killed, how far the troops will advance in Donbas, which regions the Russian Federation will occupy, etc.
The topic of war, not only in Ukraine, but also in any other country in the world, should not be a topic of gambling. It is extremely inhumane to determine the odds of a favorite and an underdog when one country attacks another. At the same time, it does not matter which country wins when people are hit and killed. In a world where human lives and suffering become the object of cynical stakes, we face deep moral degradation. War is not just another betting event, it is a tragedy that takes lives, destroys families and destinies. Every bet on war is a step towards devaluing human life and turning tragedy into a source of entertainment and profit. At such moments, it is important to remember humanity and compassion, because real losses are not measured by money, but by the pain and grief of those who suffered. Never forget that there are real people behind every statistic and every life is worth more than any winnings.
Oksana Ishchenko
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