The war radically changes all demographic indicators — from the structure of the population to the birth rate and average life expectancy. If in peacetime these parameters make it possible to make stable forecasts regarding social policy, the health care system, or pension provision, then in wartime conditions they lose their clarity and become a harsh illustration of losses — both direct and indirect. Added to this is another serious factor — the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had already managed to significantly affect the demographic situation in Ukraine before the start of a full-scale invasion.
Combined, these two catastrophes — the pandemic and the war — have reduced the life expectancy of Ukrainians, and although exact figures are currently not available, experts are already forced to talk about a serious reduction in both female and male life expectancy. About these changes told deputy director for scientific work of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M.V. Birds of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, corresponding member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Economic Sciences Oleksandr Gladun.
According to Gladun, now the situation remains difficult, which is quite natural in the conditions of war. There is a significant decrease in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate. In addition, mass migration processes have a serious impact on the demographic picture – both internal displacement of the population and emigration abroad.
“According to our estimates, at the beginning of 2022, approximately 42 million people lived on the territory of Ukraine within the borders of 1991. As of the beginning of 2025, this figure, taking into account Crimea, the temporarily occupied regions of Donbas and other captured territories, is approximately 34 million. We are currently working on updating the calculations and plan to clarify these data in the near future.” – noted the expert.
According to him, today there are no open official data that would allow us to accurately calculate the change in the average life expectancy of Ukrainians. The main reason for this is the lack of public access to complete demographic statistics. In particular, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in accordance with the current legislation adopted in 2022, does not publish complete information on the number of deaths. The Ministry of Justice provides only general figures for death and birth rates, which are not sufficient for professional and accurate calculations.
At the same time, preliminary analytical assessments based on the demographic analysis of indirect indicators allow us to draw certain conclusions. Gladun notes that as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the average life expectancy of Ukrainians has decreased by approximately one to one and a half years. The first wave of the pandemic in 2020-2021 had the greatest impact, when a sharp excess of mortality was observed, especially in the group of middle-aged and older men.
Starting in 2022, the impact of COVID-19 began to fade into the background, giving way to the massive factor of full-scale war. It was the war that became the main reason for the further deterioration of the demographic situation. According to Gladun, the life expectancy of Ukrainian women could be shortened by three to five years as a result of the war. The reasons for such reduction are not only direct casualties among the civilian population, but also the destruction of the medical infrastructure, psychological exhaustion, long-term deprivation in the sphere of health care, nutrition, and security.
The loss of life expectancy among men is even greater. As Gladun explains, as of 2025, the average life expectancy of Ukrainian men will be about 60 years. This means a reduction of about seven years compared to the pre-war level: before the pandemic, in 2019, men in Ukraine lived to be 67 years old on average. In the European Union, this indicator exceeds 80 years. Thus, the difference between Ukraine and Western countries in the life expectancy of men reached 17–20 years.
According to the expert, the reason for this is not only the participation of men in hostilities and high mortality at the front. At the same time, the war significantly worsened access to medical care, increased the level of chronic stress, depressive states, and reduced the quality of prevention of cardiovascular diseases and oncology, which were previously the main causes of death in the male group.
Oleksandr Gladun reported that two indicators are usually used to assess the population aging process in Europe and Ukraine: the share of people over the age of 60 and the share of people over the age of 65. In the case of Ukraine, we use the first indicator, since it is closer to the current retirement age and better reflects the realities of our demographic structure. Population aging can occur as a result of two different processes. The first is a decrease in the birth rate, as a result of which the share of younger age groups is reduced. In this case, the share of elderly people increases automatically. This mechanism is called “aging from below”. The second option is a situation when life expectancy increases, and the number of elderly people increases accordingly. This phenomenon is called “aging from above”.
In modern Ukraine, the main role is played by “aging from below”: the demographic structure is changing mainly due to a sharp reduction in the number of children and youth. The birth rate is rapidly decreasing, the younger age groups are emptying, and against this background, the share of people aged 60+ automatically increases. According to the expert, this type of aging is currently the most characteristic of our country.
He noted that during the full-scale war, Ukrainian demographers recorded a stable, albeit slow, trend towards an increase in life expectancy. In particular, in 2019, the average life expectancy of women in Ukraine was 77 years — it was about 10 years less than the average in the countries of Western Europe. Current estimates suggest that this difference could have increased to 12–15 years. In the men’s group, the difference was critical even before the war — 15–17 years. Today, as noted, it can be 20 years or more. Thus, the war not only stopped the process of Ukraine’s gradual approach to European demographic indicators, but also pushed the situation back — at the same time, in all age groups.
The situation becomes especially critical in conditions where a catastrophic reduction in the birth rate occurs at the same time. Gladun has repeatedly emphasized in public speeches that the preservation of demographic balance is possible only if at least two children are born per woman. After 2022, the birth rate in Ukraine has fallen to record lows — in some regions, less than 7 births per 1,000 people are recorded, which is a level of deep depopulation.
Restoration of pre-war life expectancy indicators, according to the demographer, will be possible only in a few years after the end of the active phase of the war – provided the medical infrastructure is quickly restored, the psycho-emotional state of the population improves, the economic situation stabilizes and the internally displaced persons return. Currently, the main task is to collect and restore objective demographic statistics. Without accurate and public data, Ukraine will be unable not only to assess the depth of losses, but also to develop effective measures to overcome the demographic crisis.
Oleksandr Gladun believes that the aging of the population has a direct and tangible impact on the economic stability of the state. First of all, we are talking about the shortage of the working population — people who work, pay taxes and fill the Pension Fund. As the share of elderly people in society increases and younger age groups become smaller, the number of those who finance the solidarity pension system decreases. In Ukrainian realities, the situation is even more acute: even under conditions of relative stability, the Pension Fund has been subsidized from the state budget for a long time. This means that funds that could be used for other social or infrastructure programs are being used to cover the shortfall in pension benefits.
In addition to the financial burden on the pension system, according to the expert, demographic aging increases the pressure on the health care sector. Older people have a higher probability of chronic diseases, more often need medical supervision, treatment and rehabilitation. In cases of partial or total disability, the state’s costs for supporting such persons — through social insurance mechanisms or state aid — increase even more. Thus, population aging automatically generates increased costs in several critical sectors at the same time.
Oleksandr Gladun sees one of the possible ways out of this situation in extending the duration of a healthy, active life. If it is possible to increase the level of medical prevention, maintain the working capacity of the elderly, ensure the adaptation of working conditions to the physical capabilities of older age groups, it is possible to reduce the pressure on the pension and medical systems. Accordingly, the role of business is also changing: instead of focusing exclusively on young workers, employers must create workplaces that take into account the needs of older people — with flexible schedules, adapted physical conditions, and a slower pace of work. However, no such strategy will be successful without an increase in the birth rate. Only if more children are born now, in two decades there will be a new wave of young people who will enter the labor market and be able to support the solidarity system. Demographic dynamics do not react instantly – even in the most optimistic scenario, changes require at least one generation.
The expert noted that similar difficulties exist in most countries with a classic joint pension system. In no country did this mechanism withstand a radical change in the age structure without serious corrections. In Europe, the transition to a three-tier pension model, which combines the principle of solidarity with accumulation and private insurance, has been underway for a long time. This approach allows you to distribute the pressure between different sources of financing, reducing the burden on the budget. In Ukraine, similar ideas are also being discussed, but currently they are only at the stage of public discussion, without approved decisions and specific implementation mechanisms.
