The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) updated its macroeconomic forecast, abandoning clear dates for improving the security situation. In the January macro forecast, the National Bank of Ukraine predicted a significant improvement in the security situation from 2025. This position was confirmed at the monetary briefing in mid-January
Head of the NBU Andriy Pishnyi said at a monetary briefing on April 25.
“We do not make assumptions about the timing and course (of the war). We analyze the macro-financial situation. We note, in particular, that the economy has to some extent already adapted to the new war conditions… Therefore, we do not predict the course of the war. We make assumptions about the potential impact of the security situation on economic development.”
Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Serhii Nikolaychuk added that the National Bank of Ukraine never predicted the end of the war, but mostly focused its assessment on the macroeconomic consequences of assumptions regarding changes in security risks.
The NBU plans to publish an alternative scenario in the inflation report, which describes the possible development of events in the event of normalization of the security situation. This scenario will be used to assess the potential impact on the country’s economy.
