In the coming months, inflation in Ukraine may be higher than the indicators set in the National Bank’s January forecast. Among the main reasons, the regulator cites the rise in prices for oil products and gas against the backdrop of the situation in the Middle East. At the same time, the situation in Ukraine’s energy sector has improved somewhat in recent weeks, which should curb additional price pressure.
The National Bank notes that they will continue to maintain an appropriate level of monetary conditions in order to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments and strengthen the stability of the foreign exchange market. It is expected that this will also help stabilize inflation expectations.
At the beginning of the year, inflation generally corresponded to the regulator’s forecast. In February 2026, it slightly accelerated to 7.6% in annual terms, while core inflation remained at 7.0%. At the same time, prices for fuel, services and raw products grew slightly faster than expected, and processed products became more expensive more slowly.
As a result, overall inflation only slightly exceeded the forecast trajectory, while core inflation fully corresponded to it.
At the same time, inflation expectations of the population worsened. The NBU suggests that this is due to the difficult situation in the energy sector at the beginning of the year and the simultaneous increase in the price of everyday goods, in particular fuel and food. At the same time, the expectations of other groups of respondents remain relatively stable.
According to the National Bank, in February 2026, consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 1% per month. The dynamics were influenced by higher prices for imported vegetables, fuel, and communication services, while clothing, footwear, and household appliances continued to become cheaper.
