Less than six births per thousand: what the head of the State Statistics Service said about Ukraine’s demography
The demographic situation in Ukraine is increasingly determined by war, mass emigration, changes in the age structure of society, and postponed family decisions, which is why even individual statistical indicators are already perceived as markers of a long historical shift. In this situation, the assessment published by the head of the State Statistics Service, Arsen Makarchuk, attracted particular attention: in 2025, the birth rate will drop to a record low – less than six children per thousand population, and this figure, according to him, is an extremely negative signal for the country.
What the head of the State Statistics Service said
Last year in Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Justice, 425 thousand people died. Although this indicator turned out to be lower than before, the decrease in mortality is associated not with an improvement in the demographic situation, but with a decrease in the population. This was stated by Arsen Makarchuk, the head of the State Statistics Service, during the discussion “Ukrainian Society 2026: Demography, Migration, Labor Market”, organized by LB and EFI Group. According to him, in 2025, more than 168,600 children were born in Ukraine.
Previously, he estimated the birth rate as a figure of slightly less than six children per thousand population. Makarchuk emphasized that such dynamics are an extremely worrying demographic sign, the consequences of which will affect the country for many years to come.
His assessment focuses on the fact that the country is entering a period where the consequences of the current decline in the birth rate will be felt for many decades, affecting those generations that are still growing up or will be born later.
Why this figure is indicative
A birth rate of less than six children per thousand of the population means a critically low level of population reproduction, at which each subsequent year further weakens the country’s demographic base. Under normal conditions, such dynamics are already considered a deep crisis, while in wartime it is combined with other losses – mortality, injuries, forced displacement of people, separation of families and postponement of childbearing for an indefinite period.
Arsen Makarchuk drew attention to the fact that even a certain decrease in mortality compared to previous years should not be interpreted as an improvement in the overall picture. Another important emphasis in his explanation is: the lower number of deaths in such a situation is not associated with the improvement of the demographic environment, but with a reduction in the population itself, that is, with the base on which all further calculations are made.
Preliminary estimates published by Arsen Makarchuk show that the imbalance of birth and death rates means a further natural decrease in the population, which occurs even without taking into account external migration, that is, even before the factor of going abroad is added to the picture.
This has a direct consequence for the demographic structure: the share of older age groups is growing, while younger generations are numerically weaker. The Head of the State Statistics Service emphasized that the consequences of this process will be felt by children and grandchildren, since we are not talking about one statistical year, but about the future labor market, social security system and the general age balance of the country.
“Our children and grandchildren will feel the consequences of the Second World War, as Ukrainian demography still feels the consequences of the Second World War. There will be other, third waves of migration, family reunification outside the territory of Ukraine,” he explained.
According to UN estimates, 5.3 to 6 million Ukrainians currently live abroad. A census is needed to accurately assess the population of Ukraine, but Makarchuk stressed that it should be conducted one and a half to two years after the end of the war.
Arsen Makarchuk emphasizes that the demographic crisis is not limited to the number of births in a specific calendar period. His assessment refers to a long chain of consequences, including a reduction in the workforce, an increased burden on the social sphere, and accelerated population aging.
What role does migration play in this situation?
A separate part of the demographic crisis remains the large scale of external migration. According to estimates cited in the public discussion of the demographic situation, there are between 5.3 and 6 million Ukrainians abroad. For statistics, this means much more than a simple decrease in the population, since among those who have left, a significant share are women and children, that is, those age and social groups that directly affect the birth rate in the country.
In such a situation, the decline in births has a double dimension. On the one hand, some of the children who could be born in Ukraine appear outside the state, because families live in countries of temporary or longer stay. On the other hand, prolonged family separation, uncertainty about return, and an unstable planning horizon weaken people’s willingness to make decisions about family replenishment even where physical security is higher than in frontline or shelled areas.
Arsen Makarchuk believes that it is important to emphasize the possibility of new waves of migration, which may be associated with family reunification, economic factors and the duration of the war. This means that the demographic decline is not limited to the existing losses, because under adverse circumstances the country may again lose people who are in the most active working and reproductive age.
Such a risk exacerbates the already existing crisis, since each new outflow of population affects both the number of citizens, and domestic demand, and the structure of families, and the prospects for birth rates in the coming years. In view of this, the words of the head of the State Statistics Service sound like a fixation of a situation in which demography is closely intertwined with security, the economy and migration processes.
Separately, Arsen Makarchuk raised the topic of a full-fledged population census, without which the state will not have an accurate idea of the real number of people, their age, settlement and social structure after all the upheavals of wartime. According to him, it is advisable to conduct such a census one and a half to two years after the end of the war, when the situation stabilizes and it will be possible to obtain data closer to the actual picture, and not to the moving military state of society.
The main emphasis in Arsen Makarchuk’s words is that the demographic crisis in Ukraine has already reached a scale that will determine the future of the country for generations to come. The fertility rate he published, the preliminary estimate of the number of births and deaths, the mention of the long historical shadow of the great wars and the emphasis on the need for a future census form a holistic picture: Ukraine is entering a period where population losses and weak reproduction are becoming one of the key state problems.
