The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts that in 2025 real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.9%. This is lower than in the July forecast, where growth was expected by 2.1%. This was stated by NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshny during a briefing.
According to the updated forecasts, in 2026 Ukraine’s economy will grow by 2.0% (previously expected 2.3%), and in 2027 – by 2.8%, which is in line with the previous forecast. According to Pyshny, in the third quarter of 2025, the Ukrainian economy continued to demonstrate growth due to the active harvest of early crops, stable consumer demand, and an improvement in the situation in the energy sector, which lasted until the end of September.
“The expected increase in budget incentives at the end of the year will support further recovery”, the NBU chairman noted.
At the same time, Pyshny emphasized that the recovery process is being held back by a shortage of energy resources and labor:
“The energy deficit caused by the recent destruction of infrastructure and gas production facilities, together with the continued shortage of labor, will significantly limit business activity. In view of this, the National Bank has lowered the economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9%”.
The head of the NBU added that a gradual acceleration of economic growth is expected in 2026–2027. In his opinion, this will be facilitated by an increase in harvests, active investments in the reconstruction and development of the defense complex, as well as Ukraine’s further progress on the path of European integration.
“The gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions, stabilization of the energy sector, and reversal of negative migration dynamics will contribute to recovery. We predict that Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by 2% in 2026 and by 2.8% in 2027”, Pyshny added.
