Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is actively seeking ways to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, using his close ties to the Kremlin and US President-elect Donald Trump. His diplomatic initiatives, in particular proposals for peace negotiations, have already caused sharp reactions in Ukraine and Europe, raising questions about the reality and effectiveness of these efforts in the context of international relations.
Zelensky reproaches Orban
Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán had an almost hour-long telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The dialogue came after Orbán, accompanied by his Foreign Minister Peter Szijárt and other Hungarian officials and businessmen, visited Mar-a-Lago to meet with United States President-elect Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk.
After this meeting, Piotr Sijarto emphasized that events related to Orban’s so-called peacekeeping mission, aimed at ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, will soon take place. Actually, this step is a continuation of those initiatives that Orbán has resorted to since the beginning of the Hungarian presidency in the European Union.
Zelensky reacted negatively to Orban’s phone conversation with Putin, sarcastically noting that the positive in this story is at least the fact that Orban did not communicate in Moscow with Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, who fled to Russia after the fall of his regime.
As a result, Zelensky’s statement caused a stir reaction the Hungarian leader himself, who reprimanded the Ukrainian president for offering a Christmas truce and exchange of prisoners, but Zelenskyi did not accept such an offer. However, Orbán did not specify whether he made the same offer to Russian President Putin. Zelensky Orban’s office responded by emphasizing that Ukraine itself is conducting negotiations on the exchange of prisoners and does not need the mediation of the Hungarian Prime Minister.
This could put an end to the discussion. However, this would be short-sighted given the role Orbán currently plays in peacemaking. He certainly does not act independently, but by coordinating his steps with a person who will influence the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the near future. That person is the newly elected president of the United States, Donald Trump, who considers Orbán one of his closest allies in Europe.
Why does Trump choose Orbán as a mediator?
The ties between Orbán and Trump have a long history of mutual support. The Hungarian leader became one of the few European politicians who openly supported Trump both during his presidency and during his election campaigns. It is especially worth noting that Orban was the first among world leaders to congratulate Trump on his election victory even before the official announcement of the results. In response, Trump has repeatedly expressed his support for Orbán, underscoring their special alliance. This close connection makes the Hungarian prime minister a prominent figure in Trump’s international entourage, contrasting with the president-elect’s more cautious and distant relationship with traditional US allies such as French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. After winning the presidential elections on November 5, the newly elected US President Donald Trump had several phone conversations with the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán. According to the sources of the Hungarian Service of Radio Liberty, Trump discussed with Orban possible ways to end the war in Ukraine.
The visit of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to Mar-a-Lago, accompanied by Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó, who recently concluded talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, fueled speculation about Hungary’s ambitions to take on the role of mediator in the Russian- Ukrainian conflict. According to some sources, Donald Trump appreciates Orbán’s approach to war, perhaps seeing him as a pragmatic partner, unlike other European leaders.
We will remind you that Orban has already tried to act as a mediator in this conflict. At the beginning of Hungary’s EU presidency, he visited Kyiv for talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, and later went to Moscow to meet with Volodymyr Putin. However, these initiatives, carried out without coordination with the European Union, have caused sharp criticism from European partners, who see them as undermining joint efforts to counter Russian aggression.
“Shuttle” diplomacy?
And now there are all signs that Viktor Orbán may initiate a new phase of diplomatic efforts, using his ties to Moscow and Beijing to influence peace talks.
U to his social network account Kh he called the current phase of the war in Ukraine “the most dangerous weeks” and emphasized Budapest’s commitment to uphold diplomatic solutions. According to observers, he may meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in the near future, trying to present Hungary as a neutral mediator in the conflict. To some extent, Viktor Orbán’s initiatives can be considered a form of shuttle diplomacy, which involves mediation by actively moving between the parties to the conflict in order to find common ground and reach agreements. However, in order for such efforts to be fully termed shuttle diplomacy, several key conditions must be met. First, the mediator must be objective and inspire confidence on both sides. In Orbán’s case, neutrality is called into question because of his close ties to Russia. Second, successful shuttle diplomacy is usually coordinated with international partners. Orbán’s actions are often perceived as going against the EU’s common position. Third, the mediator must offer realistic terms for both parties. The terms put forward by Russia are currently unacceptable to Ukraine and its Western allies, which calls into question the effectiveness of such efforts. So, while Orbán may seek to implement a model of shuttle diplomacy, its success depends on his ability to overcome prejudices about his role, take into account the interests of all parties to the conflict, and gain the support of the international community. Without this, his actions will remain an attempt at unilateral mediation rather than a full-fledged diplomatic initiative.
“There is a fact that Orbán and Trump are ideological allies. And there is also a fact that Orbán is perceived as a kind of “whisperer” of Trump”, – So interprets the meaning of the Trump-Orbán tandem Daniel Gedesh, regional director of the Central and Eastern European direction of the German Marshall Fund. Instead, Bulcu Hunyadi, an analyst at the Budapest research center Political Capital, believes that Orban’s summer “shuttle diplomacy” between the EU, Kyiv, Moscow and Washington was not aimed at peacemaking. It was a provocation towards the countries of the European Union and a simultaneous signal to Trump, who is very close to Euroscepticism.
A trap for the Ukrainian president
Given Orbán’s current status, it is important to realize that he is relaying Trump’s position on future negotiations rather than presenting his own vision for resolving the conflict. Therefore, it is imprudent for Zelensky to criticize the intentions and proposals of the Hungarian Prime Minister. According to an international journalist Vitaly Portnikova, it can be a trap for Ukraine. Zelensky, they say, is not aware of the political logic, according to which Orbán Tram, who before the inauguration simply cannot take an active part in political efforts according to American law, has already started implementing peace initiatives. Careless criticism of Zelensky can be used against him, interpreted as ingratitude of the US and, accordingly, refusal of aid, including monetary aid, which should amount to billions of dollars.
Therefore, Trump can create an image of Zelensky as a president who does not value international peace efforts, and perhaps in this way prepare for political pressure on Ukraine in the future.
The story with the Christmas truce initiative proposed by Viktor Orbán may be just the beginning of a series of carefully thought-out traps aimed at the Ukrainian leadership. The effectiveness of such steps is largely due to the fact that Donald Trump’s advisers, who are now helping him in his first peace-making efforts, take into account the psychological characteristics of the Ukrainian president. They are strategizing to elicit certain emotions and reactions from him, which can then be used to justify Trump’s subsequent decisions.
These decisions, planned after January 2025, are likely to be controversial and cause significant dissatisfaction among Ukrainians. It is in this way that the foundations are formed for actions that look like peace-making initiatives, but in fact may have deeper political implications aimed at changing the balance in the conflict.
