The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicts that at the current pace of the offensive, Russian forces will be able to capture the remaining territory of the Donetsk region, which remains under Ukrainian control, by approximately August 2027. The analysts’ report states that from July 31 to November 26, the occupiers advanced an average of 0.12 kilometers per day. The ISW article states:
“They state that Russian forces first entered Pokrovsk on July 31, and from then until November 26, they advanced an average of 0.12 kilometers per day. Russian forces did not capture Pokrovsk – a city of 11.5 square miles – despite operating in the city for over 118 days, … consolidating their advance at 66 percent of Pokrovsk as of November 26, a low percentage given the time and manpower (elements of at least two combined armies) that Russia had allocated to this goal”.
Thus, even the continued involvement of significant forces did not ensure the rapid capture of the city. Analysts emphasize that the actual pace of the Russian advance demonstrates. The military victory of the Russian Federation in Ukraine is not inevitable, despite the corresponding narrative consistently promoted by the Kremlin. The report emphasizes:
“The reality on the battlefield indicates that Russia’s victory in Ukraine is far from certain. … Putin and Russian military commanders are trying to portray Russia as capable of quickly capturing the Donetsk region by military means, but reliable data on the pace of Russian advance in the Donetsk region does not indicate that Russian forces will inevitably capture the rest of the region.“
According to ISW, this data undermines the thesis of the supposedly guaranteed success of the Russian army. The report also notes that Russian forces focused on completing the capture of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, but carried out this task too slowly. Analysts say the reason is the actions of Ukrainian forces, which managed to reduce the enemy’s advance in Pokrovsk to the level of infantry movement.
