Russia’s federal budget revenues from oil and gas, which make up about a quarter of all revenues to the state treasury, will amount to 0.52 trillion rubles in May 2025, the lowest figure since July 2023. This is 0.27 trillion rubles less (by 34%) compared to May 2024. About this informs Reuters.
Oil and gas tax collections are expected to fall by 565 billion rubles (-52%) by the end of May compared to April, which also included revenues from the additional income tax for the first quarter of 2025 in the amount of 0.49 trillion rubles. If VAT is not taken into account, May receipts will be 79 billion rubles (-13%) lower than April.
The reason for this decrease was the drop in the estimated tax price for Russian oil in April — to $54.76 per barrel — and at the same time the strengthening of the ruble to 83.32 per US dollar. As a result, the ruble cost of a barrel, which determines the level of taxation, decreased to 4,000 rubles. rubles, compared to 5,079 rubles. in March and 6,965 rubles. in April 2024.
In general, for the period from January to May, taking into account the forecasted May indicators, the amount of oil and gas revenues is expected at the level of 4.25 trillion rubles — 0.7 trillion rubles (-14%) less than for the same period in 2024 (4.95 trillion rubles). The Ministry of Finance plans to publish actual data on May revenues on June 4, 2025. Tax collection for April within a single tax payment must take place no later than May 28.
The Russian government has already approved changes to the budget for 2025, which are based on the updated macroeconomic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which foresees a significant reduction in tax revenues from the oil and gas sector. The State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes considered the corresponding draft law on May 12.
According to the updated forecast, the Ministry of Finance lowered the estimate of oil and gas revenues by 2.6 trillion rubles — from 10.94 trillion (5.1% of GDP), laid down in the current budget law, to 8.32 trillion rubles (3.7% of GDP). Thus, average monthly receipts based on a 30-day month are now expected at the level of 0.684 trillion rubles instead of the previously forecasted 0.899 trillion.
