The EU proposes to extend the period of temporary protection for Ukrainian citizens and discusses scenarios for their return

The issue of the presence of millions of Ukrainian refugees in the countries of the European Union was once again in the center of political attention. Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, more than four million Ukrainian citizens have left for Europe. They became part of the temporary protection system, which was implemented on an emergency basis in the spring of 2022. Since then, the situation at the political level has developed in the direction of the maximum integration of these people into new societies, but now, in parallel with security guarantees, the discussion of return scenarios has intensified. On June 4, 2025, the European Commission made a proposal to extend the term of temporary protection for citizens of Ukraine until March 4, 2027.

Brussels not only announced the extension of the temporary protection regime, but also presented an updated political and legal program for the gradual transition to new models of stay of Ukrainians in the EU and — in the long run — for their return to Ukraine. Its purpose is to ensure stability and continuation of protection, and at the same time to prepare the ground for a gradual exit from the regime of temporary protection after the necessary conditions have been created. Thus, the Commission confirms its unconditional support for Ukraine as long as it is needed.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen emphasized:

“Since 2022, we have been providing protection to those fleeing Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine, and we will continue to do so. Together with Ukraine, we are creating the conditions for people to return and rebuild their homes as soon as it becomes safe.”

As Russia continues its illegal attacks and the situation in Ukraine remains unstable, the Commission proposes to extend the temporary protection regime for another year, until March 4, 2027. This decision will provide legal certainty both to refugees themselves and to EU Member States, guaranteeing the same standards of protection across the Union. It will also give a signal to Ukrainians that there is no need to apply for international protection, that is, for refugee status.

At the same time, the Commission offered EU member states to start preparations for an agreed exit from temporary protection. For this purpose, the recommendation of the Council of the EU is provided, which prescribes the key steps and mechanisms for the transition to long-term forms of legalization or return.

Among the proposed measures:

1. Transition to other legal statuses. Many Ukrainians have integrated in their host countries: they learned the language, got a job, and are studying. They should be given the opportunity to switch to other legal bases of stay — residence permits based on employment, study, research or long-term resident status.
2. Preparation for return and reintegration in Ukraine. In particular, it is about the organization of familiarization trips to Ukraine for those who are considering the possibility of returning. EU states are invited to create voluntary return programs in close coordination with the Ukrainian authorities.
3. Better information about available options. The commission supports the creation of so-called “Unity Hubs” in member states — information centers that will work both in the direction of integration of refugees into host societies and in the direction of return. These centers can be financed by the Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund (AMIF). The Commission will also appoint a Special Envoy for Ukrainians in the EU.
4. Coordination and data exchange. Member States will continue to share information through the Solidarity Platform and the Operational Platform for the Registration of Temporary Protection. Already created monitoring networks will also work — in particular, the EU Migration Preparedness and Crisis Blueprint Network, with an emphasis on Ukraine.

By activating the Temporary Protection Directive in March 2022, the EU ensured a basic set of rights: access to housing, medicine, education and work. The mechanism proved to be effective: it took the burden off national asylum systems that could not handle individual applications on such a scale. The current version of the directive is valid until March 2026, but if there are reasons, it can either be extended or canceled early if the circumstances in Ukraine change.

It should be noted that all the changes proposed by the European Commission do not cancel the protection regime, but prepare for its completion – gradual, controlled and taking into account both the needs of refugees and the capabilities of Ukraine. Against this background, the proposed extension until 2027 looks like a compromise: the continuation of protection — with the simultaneous announcement of gradual changes.

The proposal of the European Commission is not a final decision, it has yet to be approved by the Council of the European Union, which includes the ministers of 27 member states. This means that the further development of the situation depends on the political decisions of national governments, public sentiments in individual countries and the current state of the war in Ukraine.

Officially, no one is talking about a mass return, but in the rhetoric of European institutions there is increasingly a focus on the long-term perspective — the reconstruction of Ukraine and the creation of conditions that will allow people to return. That is why the initiative of the European Commission includes not only the legal extension of protection, but also a political emphasis on the fact that Ukraine and the EU should coordinate actions in the field of population reintegration.

Therefore, the current stage is an attempt to combine the immediate need for protection with the gradual modeling of the future status of refugees. As of June 2025, the return of Ukrainians is not yet a matter of the coming months, but it is no longer perceived as a distant hypothesis. European politicians are preparing the legal framework so that in the future these processes become controlled and voluntary, rather than chaotic or forced.