The National Bank of Ukraine has published the October Inflation Report for 2025, in which forecasts a gradual slowdown in inflation to 5% by the end of 2027. According to the baseline scenario, inflation is expected to be 9.2% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and the target of 5% will be achieved by the results of 2027.
The document notes that the pace of economic growth will remain moderate due to the consequences of the war. Thus, in 2025, GDP growth is forecast at 1.9%, in 2026 — at 2%, and in 2027 — at 2.8%. The main restraining factors are the destruction of infrastructure and electricity shortages. At the same time, the activation of agriculture, budget spending, investments in reconstruction and the defense sector will partially support economic dynamics.
According to the NBU, the reduction in inflationary pressure will contribute to a high supply of food. First of all, the expected decrease in the price of vegetables and grains, as well as a balanced monetary policy aimed at supporting the attractiveness of hryvnia savings and the stability of the foreign exchange market. At the same time, risks to the inflation forecast remain the increase in administratively regulated tariffs and electricity shortages.
The unemployment rate is expected to gradually decrease in the labor market: to 11% in 2025, 10% in 2026, and 9% in 2027. The growing demand for qualified workers will stimulate wage increases, the pace of which will exceed inflation. Real incomes are forecast to increase by 6% in 2025 and by 4–5% in 2026–2027.
The budget deficit is expected to be 25% of GDP in 2025, 19% in 2026, and 14% in 2027. Its financing, according to forecasts, will be largely provided by international aid, which will allow maintaining the country’s foreign exchange reserves at a stable level.
A separate section of the report is devoted to regional features of inflationary processes, exacerbated by the consequences of the war. The NBU notes that the expansion of the current account deficit in 2025 is due to strategic investments in defense and reconstruction, and not to excessive consumption or loss of competitiveness. Such an approach, according to the regulator, contributes to maintaining the financial and foreign economic stability of Ukraine.
