The NBU expects a mass exodus of the population due to problems with electricity: the situation is getting worse

The National Bank of Ukraine predicts a significant outflow of population from the country in the coming years, and also provides an estimate of the terms of return of Ukrainians home. Appropriate data are contained in the inflation report of the NBU.

According to forecasts of experts of the National Bank, approximately 400 thousand people are expected to leave the country in 2024, and another 300 thousand in 2025. This is a deterioration compared to the April report, which is due to the significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system and prolonged power outages.

Significant destruction of the country’s energy system leads to long-term power outages, which, in turn, negatively affects production processes. This reduces economic activity and labor demand, which becomes an additional incentive for migration.

Damage to the infrastructure increases the risks for the heating season, which also negatively affects the situation in the country. The high level of danger makes it difficult to normalize economic conditions in the near future.

NBU experts predict that the net return of migrants to the country will begin in 2026 and will be gradual – approximately 400,000 people. This is due to the adaptation of Ukrainians to new places of residence, as well as difficult conditions in Ukraine, in particular, power outages.