The price of Russian oil fell below $50 per barrel for the first time since spring 2025
The price of Russian Urals oil, the main export brand of the Russian Federation, has fallen below $50 per barrel for the first time since spring 2025. This is reported by Russian media.
In particular, in the port of “Primorsk” on the Baltic Sea this week the price dropped to $47.4 per barrel, which for the first time turned out to be lower than the updated EU price ceiling of $47.6. The decline in Urals prices is happening synchronously with the world oil market: Brent quotes have fallen by 15% over the past three weeks and are currently holding just above $60.
Analysts call the main factor in the fall the truce between Israel and Hamas, which has reduced risks for tankers in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. The market is now focused on the surplus of production created by OPEC+ countries, increasing supplies.
The decline in the cost of oil is becoming a serious challenge for the Russian budget, which has already received 21% less raw material revenues in January-September 2025. Initially, the draft budget for this year was formed at the rate of $70 per barrel of Urals, but later the figure was reduced to $58, which reduced the planned oil and gas revenues from 10.9 to 8.6 trillion rubles.
In the 2026 budget, the Russian Ministry of Finance set the price of Urals at $59 per barrel and maintained a low level of raw material revenues – 8.9 trillion rubles, which is 20% less than in 2024. In conditions of record military spending, this could lead to a deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles.
