The probability of a nuclear strike by Putin is higher than it seems: The Telegraph
British parliamentarian and analyst Bob Seeley warns: the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons is not only hypothetical, but treating it as an information game is dangerous and irresponsible. In his column for The Telegraph he criticized both the Russian leadership and the reaction of US President Donald Trump, which he said sets a dangerous precedent in nuclear policy.
Seeley points out that threats from the Kremlin, in particular the recent statements of former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, are no longer perceived as shocking in the West — their repetition has dulled sensitivity to nuclear blackmail. However, the fact that these statements do not remain unanswered by the American president worried the British politician.
He is referring to the recent reaction of Trump, who in response to Medvedev’s threats announced the dispatch of two nuclear submarines to “appropriate areas.” Such a public move, according to Seeley, effectively admits that the US president is subject to provocations by the Kremlin — and it creates a new, risky model of engagement in which nuclear policy is guided not by analytics or deterrence, but by emotional reactions to statements on the Internet.
“It is less good that Trump openly admits: he is reacting directly to Medvedev’s nuclear bravado. Now the Russian regime knows that it can provoke the US president to take real action if it annoys him enough on the Internet.” – emphasized the British deputy.
Seely believes that the Kremlin has long and carefully studied the psychology of Western leaders, in particular their emotional vulnerability. Therefore, any demonstration of impulsiveness, especially in response to provocative posts, only reinforces the confidence of the Russian regime in the correctness of the chosen tactics.
In addition, the analyst emphasized that the policy of containment, which for decades was built on carefully weighing words and signals, now risks turning into public exchanges in the style of “trash talk”, which devalues the very seriousness of the topic.
Despite everything, Seeley admitted: it is good that Trump is beginning to “see through” the Russian game, in particular, the illusoryness of efforts to achieve peace through concessions to the aggressor. According to him, Trump’s policy, which involved the conclusion of a “peace agreement at the expense of Ukrainians”, did not work, and the current irritation of the head of the White House indicates the awareness of the failure of this strategy.
The material of The Telegraph warns that the neglect of the seriousness of the nuclear threat, the reactivity of Western leaders and the shift of nuclear rhetoric to the plane of social networks are factors that can lead to unpredictable consequences. In a world where one bad post can lead to real action, it’s important to maintain a cool head and strategic accountability.
